Comparison of two individual-based models for simulating HIV epidemics in a population with HSV-2 using as case study Yaounde-Cameroon, 1989-1998

Abstract

Model comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we compared models generated with two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV-2. For each model simulator, we constructed four models, starting from a simplified model and stepwise including more model complexity. For the resulting eight models, the predictions of the impact of behavioural interventions on the HIV epidemic in Yaounde (Cameroon) were compared. The results show that differences in model assumptions and model complexity can influence the size of the predicted impact of the intervention, as well as the predicted qualitative behaviour of the HIV epidemic after the intervention. Moreover, two models that agree in their predictions of the HIV epidemic in absence of an intervention can have different outputs when predicting the impact of interventions. These findings highlight the importance of making more data available for the calibration and validation of epidemiological models.