Diagnosis and Prognosis Using Machine Learning Trained on BrainMorphometry and White Matter Connectomes

Abstract

Accurate, reliable prediction of risk for Alzheimers disease (AD) is essential for early, disease-modifying therapeutics. Multimodal MRI, such as structural and diffusion MRI, is likely to contain complementary information of neurodegenerative processes in AD. Here we tested the utility of the multimodal MRI (T1-weighted structure and diffusion MRI), combined with high-throughput brain phenotyping--morphometry and structural connectomics--and machine learning, as a diagnostic tool for AD. We used, firstly, a clinical cohort at a dementia clinic (National Health Insurance Service-Ilsan Hospital [NHIS-IH]; N=211; 110 AD, 64 mild cognitive impairment [MCI], and 37 cognitively normal with subjective memory complaints [SMC]) to test the diagnostic models; and, secondly, Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI)-2 to test the generalizability. Our machine learning models trained on the morphometric and connectome estimates (number of features=34,646) showed optimal classification accuracy (AD/SMC: 97% accuracy, MCI/SMC: 83% accuracy; AD/MCI: 97% accuracy) in NHIS-IH cohort, outperforming a benchmark model (FLAIR-based white matter hyperintensity volumes). In ADNI-2 data, the combined connectome and morphometry model showed similar or superior accuracies (AD/HC: 96%; MCI/HC: 70%; AD/MCI: 75% accuracy) compared with the CSF biomarker model (t-tau, p-tau, and Amyloid {beta}, and ratios). In predicting MCI to AD progression in a smaller cohort of ADNI-2 (n=60), the morphometry model showed similar performance with 69% accuracy compared with CSF biomarker model with 70% accuracy. Our comparison of classifiers trained on structural MRI, diffusion MRI, FLAIR, and CSF biomarkers show the promising utility of the white matter structural connectomes in classifying AD and MCI in addition to the widely used structural MRI-based morphometry, when combined with machine learning.\n\nHighlightsO_LIWe showed the utility of multimodal MRI, combining morphometry and white matter connectomes, to classify the diagnosis of AD and MCI using machine learning.\nC_LIO_LIIn predicting the progression from MCI to AD, the morphometry model showed the best performance.\nC_LIO_LITwo independent clinical datasets were used in this study: one for model building, the other for generalizability testing.\nC_LI