Population based hospitalization burden of laboratory-confirmed hand, foot and mouth disease caused by multiple enterovirus serotypes in southern China

Yu, S.; Liao, Q.; Zhou, Y.; Hu, S.; Chen, Q.; Luo, K.; Chen, Z.; Luo, L.; Huang, W.; Dai, B.; He, M.; Liu, F.; Qiu, Q.; Ren, L.; Doorn, H. R. v.; Yu, H.

doi:10.1101/403659

bioRxiv · 10.1101/403659

Population based hospitalization burden of laboratory-confirmed hand, foot and mouth disease caused by multiple enterovirus serotypes in southern China

Yu, S.·Liao, Q.·Zhou, Y.·Hu, S.·Chen, Q.·Luo, K.·Chen, Z.·Luo, L.·Huang, W.·Dai, B.·He, M.·Liu, F.·Qiu, Q.·Ren, L.·Doorn, H. R. v.·Yu, H.

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

BackgroundHand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is spread widely across Asia, and the hospitalization burden is as yet not well understood. Here, we estimated serotype-specific and age-specific hospitalization rates of HFMD in Southern China.\n\nMethodsWe enrolled pediatric patients admitted to 3/3 county-level hospitals and 3/23 township level hospitals in Anhua county, Hunan (CN) with HFMD, and collected samples to identify enterovirus serotypes by RT-PCRs between October 2013 and September 2016. The information of other eligible but un-enrolled patients were retrospectively collected from the same six hospitals. Monthly number of hospitalizations for all causes was collected from each of 23 township level hospitals to extrapolate hospitalizations associated with HFMD among these.\n\nResultsDuring the three years, an estimated 3,236 pediatric patients were hospitalized with lab-confirmed HFMD, and among these only one patient was severe. The mean hospitalization rates were 660 (95% CI: 638-684) per 100,000 person-years for lab-confirmed HFMD, with higher rates among CV-A16 and CV-A6 associated HFMD (213 vs 209 per 100,000 person-years), and lower among EV-A71, CV-A10 and other enteroviruses associated HFMD (134, 39 and 66 per 100,000 person-years, p<0.001). Children aged 12-23 months had the highest hospitalization rates (3,594/100,000 person-years), followed by those aged 24-35 months (1,828/100,000 person-years) and 6-11 months (1,572/100,000 person-years). Compared with other serotypes, CV-A6-associated hospitalizations were evident at younger ages.\n\nConclusionsOur study indicates a substantial hospitalization burden associated with non-severe HFMD in a rural county in southern China. Future mitigation policies should take into account the disease burden identified, and optimize interventions for HFMD.

Source connections

Published article ↗

Explore related subjects

epidemiology Preprint

Keep this discovery

BibTeX RIS

Yu, S., Liao, Q., Zhou, Y., Hu, S., Chen, Q., Luo, K., Chen, Z., Luo, L., Huang, W., Dai, B., He, M., Liu, F., Qiu, Q., Ren, L., Doorn, H. R. v., Yu, H.. 2018-08-29. Population based hospitalization burden of laboratory-confirmed hand, foot and mouth disease caused by multiple enterovirus serotypes in southern China. https://doi.org/10.1101/403659

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2018

Translating surveillance data into incidence estimates

Monitoring a population for a disease requires the hosts to be sampled and tested for the pathogen. This results in sampling series from which to estimate the disease incidence, i.e. the proportion of hosts infected. Existing estimation methods assume that disease incidence is not changing between monitoring rounds, resulting in underestimation of the disease incidence. In this paper we develop an incidence estimation model accounting for epidemic growth with monitoring rounds sampling varying incidence. We also show how to accommodate the asymptomatic period characteristic to most diseases. For practical use, we produce an approximation of the model, which is subsequently shown accurate for relevant epidemic and sampling parameters. Both the approximation and the full model are applied to stochastic spatial simulations of epidemics. The results prove their consistency for a very wide range of situations.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

The Swiss Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia registry: objectives, methods and first results

Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia (PCD) is a rare hereditary, multi-organ disease caused by defects in ciliary structure and function. It results in a wide range of clinical manifestations, most commonly in the upper and lower airways. Central data collection in national and international registries is essential to studying the epidemiology of rare diseases and filling in gaps in knowledge of diseases such as PCD. For this reason, the Swiss Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia Registry (CH-PCD) was founded in 2013 as a collaborative project between epidemiologists and adult and paediatric pulmonologists.\n\nThe registry records patients of any age, suffering from PCD, who are treated and resident in Switzerland. It collects information from patients identified through physicians, diagnostic facilities, and patient organisations. The registry dataset contains data on diagnostic evaluations, lung function, microbiology and imaging, symptoms, treatments, and hospitalizations.\n\nBy May 2018, CH-PCD has contacted 566 physicians of different specialties and identified 134 patients with PCD. At present this number represents an overall 1 in 63,000 prevalence of people diagnosed with PCD in Switzerland. Prevalence differs by age and region; it is highest in children and adults younger than 30 years, and in Espace Mittelland. The median age of patients in the registry is 25 years (range 5-73), and 49 patients have a definite PCD diagnosis based on recent international guidelines. Data from CH-PCD are contributed to international collaborative studies and the registry facilitates patient identification for nested studies.\n\nCH-PCD has proven to be a valuable research tool that already has highlighted weaknesses in PCD clinical practice in Switzerland. Development of centralised diagnostic and management centres and adherence to international guidelines are needed to improve diagnosis and management--particularly for adult PCD patients.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Perfect Counterfactuals for Epidemic Simulations

Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets of simulations are conducted, one with the intervetnion, and one without, and epidemic sizes (or some related metric) are compared to estimate the effect of the intervention. Since it is possible that controlled epidemics are larger than uncontrolled ones if there is substantial stochastic variation between epidemics, uncertainty intervals from this approach can include a negative effect even for an effective intervention. To more precisely estimate the number of cases an intervention will prevent within a single epidemic, here we develop a single world approach to matching simulations of controlled epidemics to their exact uncontrolled counterfac-tual. Our method borrows concepts from percolation approaches prune out possible epidemic histories and create potential epidemic graph that can be realized to create perfectly matched controlled and uncontrolled epidemics. We present an implementation of this method for a common class of compartmental models, and its application in a simple SIR model. Results illustrate how, at the cost of some computation time, this method substantially narrows confidence intervals and avoids non-sensical inferences.

epidemiology↗