DTK-Dengue: A new agent-based model of dengue virus transmission dynamics

Soda, K. J.; Moore, S. M.; Espana, G.; Bloedow, J.; Raybaud, B.; Althouse, B.; Johansson, M.; Wenger, E.; Welkhoff, P.; Perkins, A.; ten Bosch, Q. A.

doi:10.1101/376533

bioRxiv · 10.1101/376533

DTK-Dengue: A new agent-based model of dengue virus transmission dynamics

Soda, K. J.·Moore, S. M.·Espana, G.·Bloedow, J.·Raybaud, B.·Althouse, B.·Johansson, M.·Wenger, E.·Welkhoff, P.·Perkins, A.·ten Bosch, Q. A.

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Abstract

Dengue virus (DENV) is a pathogen spread by Aedes mosquitoes that has a considerable impact on global health. Agent-based models can be used to explicitly represent factors that are difficult to measure empirically, by focusing on specific aspects of DENV transmission dynamics that influence spread in a particular location. We present a new agent-based model for DENV dynamics, DTK-Dengue, that can be readily applied to new locations and to a diverse set of goals. It extends the vector-borne disease module in the Institute for Disease Modellings Epidemiological Modeling Disease Transmission Kernel (EMOD-DTK) to model DENV dynamics. There are three key modifications present in DTK-Dengue: 1) modifications to how climatic variables influence vector development for Aedes mosquitoes, 2) updates to adult vector behavior to make them more similar to Aedes, and 3) the inclusion of four DENV serotypes, including their effects on human immunity and symptoms. We demonstrate DTK-Dengues capabilities by fitting the model to four interrelated datasets: total and serotype-specific dengue incidences between January 2007 and December 2008 from San Juan, Puerto Rico; the age distribution of reported dengue cases in Puerto Rico during 2007; and the number of adult female Ae. aegypti trapped in two neighborhoods of San Juan between November 2007 and December 2008. The model replicated broad patterns in the reference data, including a correlation between vector population dynamics and rainfall, appropriate seasonality in the reported incidence, greater circulation of DENV-3 than any other serotype, and an inverse relationship between age and the proportion of cases associated with each age group over 20 years old. This exercise demonstrates the potential for DTK-Dengue to assimilate multiple types of epidemiologic data into a realistic portrayal of DENV transmission dynamics. Due to the open availability of the DTK-Dengue software and the availability of numerous other modules for modeling disease transmission and control from EMOD-DTK, this new model has potential for a diverse range of future applications in a wide variety of settings.

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Soda, K. J., Moore, S. M., Espana, G., Bloedow, J., Raybaud, B., Althouse, B., Johansson, M., Wenger, E., Welkhoff, P., Perkins, A., ten Bosch, Q. A.. 2018-07-25. DTK-Dengue: A new agent-based model of dengue virus transmission dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1101/376533

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