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bioRxiv · 10.1101/311787

Worldwide impacts of past and projected future land-use change on local species richness and the Biodiversity Intactness Index

Hill, S. L. L.·Gonzalez, R.·Sanchez-Ortiz, K.·Caton, E.·Espinoza, F.·Newbold, T.·Tylianakis, J.·Scharlemann, J. P. W.·De Palma, A.·Purvis, A.
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Abstract

Although people have modified the world around us throughout human history, the Great Acceleration has seen drivers such as land conversion, exploitation of natural populations, species introductions, pollution and human-induced climate change placing biodiversity under increasing pressure. In this paper we examine 1) how terrestrial species communities have been impacted over the last thousand years of human development and 2) how plausible futures defined by alternative socio-economic scenarios are expected to impact species communities in the future. We use the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) database to model impacts of land-use change and human population on local species richness, community abundance, and biodiversity intactness using a mixed-effects modelling structure. Historical impacts are inferred through projection of model results onto maps of historical land use, provided by the land-use harmonization project, and gridded human population density (HYDE 3.1). Future impacts are explored using the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. These scenarios detail five plausible global futures based upon socio-economic factors such as wealth, population, education, technology, and reliance on fossil fuels, and can be combined with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to consider climate mitigation strategies. We project model results onto the gridded outputs of six SSP/RCP scenario combinations: SSP1/RCP2.6, SSP2/RCP4.5, SSP3/RCP7.0, SSP4/RCP3.4, SSP4/RCP6.0, and SSP5/RCP8.5. Historical trend lines show that most losses in local biodiversity are relatively recent, with 75% of all loss in both abundance-based Biodiversity Intactness Index and species richness occurring post-1800. Stark regional differences emerge in all future scenarios, with biodiversity in African regions undergoing greater losses than Oceania, North America and the European regions. Although climate change is expected to have severe detrimental impacts to biodiversity - which are not quantified in these results - it is important to consider how the climate change mitigation itself may also impact biodiversity. Our results suggest that strong climate change mitigation through biofuel production will detrimentally impact biodiversity: SSP4/RCP3.4 (with high biofuel mitigation) is predicted to see two times the decrease in abundance-based biodiversity intactness and three times the decrease in local species richness between 2015-2100 as is predicted for SSP4/RCP6.0 (with lower levels of mitigation). SSP4/RCP3.4 forecasts the greatest impact to average local species richness of all the SSP/RCP combinations with an average loss of 13% of local species richness projected to have occurred by 2100. SSP3/RCP7.0 - a scenario describing a globally segregated, and economically protectionist future with low climate change mitigation - has the worst impacts on abundance-based biodiversity intactness with an average loss of 26% of intactness by 2100. However, a brighter future is possible; SSP1/RCP2.6 describes a more sustainable future, where human populations are provided for without further jeopardising environmental integrity - in this scenario we project that biodiversity will recover somewhat, with gains in biodiversity intactness and species richness in many regions of the world by 2100.

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Hill, S. L. L., Gonzalez, R., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., Caton, E., Espinoza, F., Newbold, T., Tylianakis, J., Scharlemann, J. P. W., De Palma, A., Purvis, A.. 2018-05-01. Worldwide impacts of past and projected future land-use change on local species richness and the Biodiversity Intactness Index. https://doi.org/10.1101/311787

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