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bioRxiv · 10.1101/272898

Rarity and conservation status do not predict vertebrate population trends

Daskalova, G. N.·Myers-Smith, I. H.·Godlee, J. L.
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Abstract

The Earths biota is changing over time in complex ways. A critical challenge is to test whether specific biomes, taxa or types of species benefit or suffer in a time of accelerating global change. We analysed nearly 10 000 abundance time series from over 2000 vertebrate species part of the Living Planet Database. We integrated abundance data with information on geographic range, habitat preference, taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships, and IUCN Red List Categories and threats. We found that 15% of populations declined, 18% increased, and 67% showed no net changes over time. Against a backdrop of no biogeographic and phylogenetic patterning in population change, we uncovered a distinct taxonomic signal. Amphibians were the only taxa that experienced net declines in the analysed data, while birds, mammals and reptiles experienced net increases. Population trends were poorly captured by species rarity and global-scale threats. Incorporation of the full spectrum of population change will improve conservation efforts to protect global biodiversity.

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Daskalova, G. N., Myers-Smith, I. H., Godlee, J. L.. 2018-03-05. Rarity and conservation status do not predict vertebrate population trends. https://doi.org/10.1101/272898

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