Interim impact evaluation of the hepatitis C virus elimination program in Georgia

Walker, J. G.; Lim, A. G.; Fraser, H.; Gvinjilia, L.; Hagan, L.; Kuchuloria, T.; Martin, N.; Nasrullah, M.; Shadaker, S.; Aladashvili, M.; Asatiani, A.; Baliashvili, D.; Butsashvili, M.; Chikovani, I.; Khonelidze, I.; Kirtadze, I.; Kuniholm, M.; Otiashvili, D.; Stvilia, K.; Tsertsvadze, T.; Hickman, M.; Morgan, J.; Gamkrelidze, A.; Kvaratskhelia, V.; Averhoff, F.; Vickerman, P.

doi:10.1101/270579

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/270579

Interim impact evaluation of the hepatitis C virus elimination program in Georgia

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Abstract

Background and AimsGeorgia has one of the highest hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence rates in the world, with >5% of the adult population (~150,000 people) chronically infected. In April 2015, the Georgian government, in collaboration with CDC and other partners, launched a national program to eliminate HCV through scaling up HCV treatment and prevention interventions, with the aim of achieving a 90% reduction in prevalence by 2020. We evaluate the interim impact of the HCV treatment program as of 31 October 2017, and assess the feasibility of achieving the elimination goal by 2020.\n\nMethodWe developed a dynamic HCV transmission model to capture the current and historical epidemic dynamics of HCV in Georgia, including the main drivers of transmission. Using the 2015 national sero-survey and prior surveys conducted among people who inject drugs (PWID) from 1997-2015, the model was calibrated to data on HCV prevalence by age, gender and PWID status, and the age distribution of PWID. We use the model to project the interim impact of treatment strategies currently being undertaken as part of the ongoing Georgia HCV elimination program, while accounting for treatment failure/loss to follow up, in order to determine whether they are on track to achieving their HCV elimination target by 2020, or whether strategies need to be modified to ensure success.\n\nResultsA treatment rate of 2,050 patients/month was required from the beginning of the national program to achieve a 90% reduction in prevalence by the end of 2020, with equal treatment rates of PWID and the general population. From May 2015 to October 2017, 40,420 patients were treated, an average of ~1,350 per month; although the treatment rate has recently declined from a peak of 4,500/month in September 2016 to 2100/month in November-December 2016, and 1000/month in August-October 2017, with a sustained virological response rate (SVR) of 98% per-protocol or 78% intent to treat. The model projects that the treatments undertaken up to October 2017 have reduced adult chronic prevalence by 26% (18-35%) to 3.7% (2.9-5.1%), reduced total incidence by 25% (15-35%), and prevented 1845 (751-3969) new infections and 93 (31-177) HCV-related deaths. If the treatment rate of 1000 patients initiated per month continues, prevalence will have halved by 2020, and reduce by 90% by 2026. In order to reach a 90% reduction by 2020, the treatment rate must increase 3.5-fold to 4000/month.\n\nConclusionThe Georgia HCV elimination program has accomplished an impressive scale up of treatment, which has already impacted on prevalence and incidence, and averted deaths due to HCV. However, extensive scale up is needed to achieve a 90% reduction in prevalence by 2020.

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Walker, J. G., Lim, A. G., Fraser, H., Gvinjilia, L., Hagan, L., Kuchuloria, T., Martin, N., Nasrullah, M., Shadaker, S., Aladashvili, M., Asatiani, A., Baliashvili, D., Butsashvili, M., Chikovani, I., Khonelidze, I., Kirtadze, I., Kuniholm, M., Otiashvili, D., Stvilia, K., Tsertsvadze, T., Hickman, M., Morgan, J., Gamkrelidze, A., Kvaratskhelia, V., Averhoff, F., Vickerman, P.. 2018-02-24. Interim impact evaluation of the hepatitis C virus elimination program in Georgia. https://doi.org/10.1101/270579

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