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bioRxiv · 10.1101/266007

Evolution transforms pushed waves into pulled waves

Erm, P.·Phillips, B. L.
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Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of biological invasions is crucial for managing numerous phenomena, from invasive species to tumours. Despite the breadth of application, and substantial theoretical development, invasions have proven difficult to predict. This may partly be due to an underappreciation of the interaction between the Allee effect (where individuals in low-density populations suffer lowered fitness) and evolution during invasions. Since invasion fronts are regions of perpetually low population density, selection should favour vanguard invaders that are resistant to Allee effects. Evolution in response to this pressure could cause invasions to transition from pushed waves, propelled by dispersal from behind the invasion front, to pulled waves, driven by the invasion vanguard. To examine this possibility, we construct an individual-based model in which a trait that governs resistance to the Allee effect evolves during an invasion. We find that vanguard invaders rapidly evolve resistance to the Allee effect, causing invasions to accelerate. This also results in invasions transforming from pushed waves into pulled waves; an outcome with important consequences for the predictability of invasion speed. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for evolution in invasion forecasts, and suggest that it has the capacity to fundamentally alter broader invasion dynamics.

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Erm, P., Phillips, B. L.. 2018-02-15. Evolution transforms pushed waves into pulled waves. https://doi.org/10.1101/266007

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