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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.11.27.690991

Dispersal evolution as a driver of island biodiversity

van Wunnik, S.·Kauai, F.·Bonte, D.
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Abstract

Island biodiversity reflects a tension between isolation and connectivity. Dispersal lies at the heart of this paradox: it enables colonization and ecological opportunity, yet excessive gene flow can constrain divergence and speciation. We use a spatially explicit, individual-based model to ask how dispersal evolution influences speciation and long-term diversity. Across archipelagos, rare long-distance dispersal events trigger colonization and divergence, after which dispersal traits evolve along two trajectories: increasing or decreasing range. These outcomes correlate with island size and isolation. Structured landscapes stabilize species richness through low turnover, whereas continuous landscapes remain species-poor despite high diversification rates. Our results reveal that spatial structure and dispersal evolution jointly govern biodiversity, underscoring the need to integrate movement into theories of speciation. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=146 SRC="FIGDIR/small/690991v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (24K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@17d93ddorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@176c011org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@13bbeb1org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1646b9d_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG Visual abstract The paradox of dispersal. Although elevated dispersal levels increases the number of ecological opportunities for individuals, it also increases gene flow. These counteract each other in terms of speciation, resulting in a speciation tug-of-war. C_FIG

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van Wunnik, S., Kauai, F., Bonte, D.. 2025-11-28. Dispersal evolution as a driver of island biodiversity. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.11.27.690991

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