Evaluating a structured expert elicitation approach for adaptive conservation: Lessons from five years in practice

Abstract

Threatened species management relies on Ex ante estimates of species responses to different interventions to generate meaningful predictions. Structured expert elicitation is often used to generate these estimates, but comparisons of these expert-predicted outcomes with observed results are rare. This study aims to evaluate the utility of expert elicitation for adaptive management in the New South Wales Saving our Species (SoS) program in Australia by revisiting six species management plans that were generated from bespoke structured elicitation guidelines five years prior. Each species management plan included a defined scope, conceptual model, monitoring indicators and estimated response to management curves under different scenarios. Experts reviewed the conceptual models after five years of management and monitoring and compared the predicted response to management with observed monitoring data. In three of the six case studies, observed outcomes closely matched predictions. Where predictions diverged, factors such as unanticipated new threats and unexpected responses to interventions contributed to discrepancies. However, in all cases, the structured approach provided a clear logic for planning, enabling managers to systematically refine their understanding. The conceptual models and response curves proved valuable for collaboration, communication, and generating hypotheses for unexpected results. This work demonstrates the value of the bespoke guidelines in supporting adaptive management processes, strengthening the knowledge base for threatened species conservation while improving alignment between predictions and real-world outcomes.