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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.10.28.684754

Species interactions are internally constrained despite large climatic variability

Pico-Jorda, S.·Song, C.·Godoy, O.
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Abstract

Understanding how vital rates and species interactions vary over time is crucial for predicting community responses to environmental change. Considerable progress has been made in understanding the drivers of variation in vital rates. However, the question of whether interactions are highly plastic and context-dependent, or strongly constrained by internal (e.g., species traits and composition) and/or external factors (e.g., environmental conditions) remains unclear. We applied a theoretical approach based on the feasibility domain --the range of conditions allowing coexistence-- to a nine-year dataset of time-changing interactions between annual plants under large variability in annual precipitation. Using subcommunities of three species, we found that species interactions are strongly constrained, forming a "core-periphery" structure of consistently feasible combinations across years. This main finding means that species sample repeatedly a restricted range of opportunities for coexistence. Similar findings were obtained for subcommunities of four species. Crucially, the constraints to variation in biotic interactions are determined by species identity (internal constraints) rather than precipitation or temporal autocorrelation (external environmental factors). Furthermore, we found a contrasting effect of precipitation on the feasibility of subcommunities. While wetter years increase similarity between subcommunities and reduce the overall feasible range, drier years increase dissimilarity between subcommunities and increase the probability of coexistence when the conditions seem harsher. These findings suggest that constraints to biotic interactions tend to be alike across species in wetter years, but more context dependency occurs across species in drier years. Our findings challenge the assumption of highly plastic species interactions even in a highly dynamic system of annual plants. Our results also highlight the critical importance of internal constraints generated by species identity in mediating community persistence and predicting community responses to environmental change.

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Pico-Jorda, S., Song, C., Godoy, O.. 2025-10-28. Species interactions are internally constrained despite large climatic variability. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.28.684754

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