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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.10.14.682485

Climate-Driven Ecosystem Productivity Changes Restructure Food Systems

Dashti, H.·Luo, M.·Nicholson, C.·Chen, M.
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Abstract

Climate change affects food systems through multiple pathways, yet the isolated effects of climate-driven ecosystem productivity changes remain poorly understood. While field studies translate productivity changes to crop yields, at larger scales yield conflates productivity with management and technology, and critically, productivity changes occur across all vegetation types, not just agricultural lands. We isolate ecosystem productivity changes to trace their propagation through food systems across three socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) by coupling the CLASSIC land surface model with GCAM integrated assessment model. Productivity changes lead to crops systematically shifting from human consumption to animal feed and bioenergy (up to 15% reallocation), while there is a significant transition of managed agricultural lands to unmanaged lands by up to 6 million km2 as productivity gains enable less intensive land use. These changes drive extreme regional divergence, with food production volume changing from +35% to -28% and substantial portfolio reorganization. Disruptions peak under regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0), revealing how fragmented governance amplifies biophysical feedbacks beyond climate forcing alone. While how much we eat may remain stable, ecosystem productivity fundamentally reshapes what we eat and where to source it.

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Dashti, H., Luo, M., Nicholson, C., Chen, M.. 2025-10-15. Climate-Driven Ecosystem Productivity Changes Restructure Food Systems. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.14.682485

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