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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.08.22.671786

INDITEK-2.0: A Bayesian inverse eco-evolutionary modelling framework for reconstructing Phanerozoic biodiversity

Cermeno, P.·Garcia-Comas, C.·Herrero Gascon, G.·Benton, M. J.·Bodin, T.·Gurung, K.·Mills, B.·Pohl, A.
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Abstract

O_LIMechanistic eco-evolutionary models are powerful tools for understanding how life diversified over geological timescales, yet estimating their parameters remains a key challenge. The high computational requirements of these models make probabilistic inversion methods unfeasible. C_LIO_LIWe address this challenge with INDITEK-2.0, a new, cost-efficient eco-evolutionary model that integrates a Bayesian inverse modelling framework for probabilistic estimation of parameters. C_LIO_LITo validate this framework, we conducted a proof-of-concept study. We first generated synthetic biodiversity data for marine invertebrates using INDITEK-2.0 with known parameter values. To mimic field data, some realistic random Gaussian errors were added to the data. We then used our Bayesian inverse modelling framework to recover these original (true) parameter values from the dataset of current biodiversity distributions after 500 million years of diversification. Our solution is a probability distribution on the parameter space, and we show that the method successfully recovered the target parameter values with a relatively low degree of uncertainity. C_LIO_LIINDITEK-2.0s ability to probabilistically infer underlying eco-evolutionary processes provides a new modelling tool for reconstructing the evolutionary history of biodiversity across Earths ecosystems and taxonomic groups. C_LI

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Cermeno, P., Garcia-Comas, C., Herrero Gascon, G., Benton, M. J., Bodin, T., Gurung, K., Mills, B., Pohl, A.. 2025-08-26. INDITEK-2.0: A Bayesian inverse eco-evolutionary modelling framework for reconstructing Phanerozoic biodiversity. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.08.22.671786

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