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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.07.08.663759

Map simulator of tick abundance in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes

Vourc'h, G.·Abrial, D.·Agoulon, A.·McCoy, K.·Butet, A.·Verheyden, H.·Loche, R.·Lebert, I.·Perez, G.·Quillery, E.·Chastagner, A.·Leger, E.·Rantier, Y.·Hewison, A. J. M.·Morrelet, N.·Bastian, S.·Hoch, T.·Plantard, O. G. N.
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Abstract

Among vector-borne diseases, tick-borne diseases (TBD) are a major concern for human health. Mapping the distribution of important tick species is thus a major challenge for efficient prevention. Due to its specific ecological requirements, Ixodes ricinus, the main tick species in Europe responsible for TBD transmission, lives mostly in woodlands but also at the interface between woodlands and pastures or crops and along hedgerows. At the landscape scale, extensive variations in tick densities are observed but remain poorly understood. In that aim, we built a statistical model to identify the landscape variables influencing the abundance of questing I. ricinus nymphs, using GLMM approaches and MCMC estimates. This model was fitted on a data set based on a field sampling of ticks conducted during 3 years in 2 different agricultural landscapes in northwest and southwest France, for a total of 5390 sampling units. Among 12 variables investigated, 4 were finally kept in the model: woodland perimeter, woodland distance, road distance and building perimeter. Then, we developed a R package that simulates the abundance of questing nymphs within a given agricultural landscape, taking into account the influence of the different habitats as determined by the above statistical model. The maps obtained as an output from this simulator will be a useful tool for visualizing TBD risk, notably for stake-holders involved in landscape management and public health decisions. Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=88 SRC="FIGDIR/small/663759v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (46K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@f950aborg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f0f27org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@11bde05org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8d2202_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG HighlightsIxodes ricinus abondance is influenced by landscape characteristics Tick sampling was carried out in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes Informative variables related to habitats were identified by statistical analysis Woodlands, roads and buildings influence tick densities The resulting model was used to build a simulator of tick at-risk zones

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Vourc'h, G., Abrial, D., Agoulon, A., McCoy, K., Butet, A., Verheyden, H., Loche, R., Lebert, I., Perez, G., Quillery, E., Chastagner, A., Leger, E., Rantier, Y., Hewison, A. J. M., Morrelet, N., Bastian, S., Hoch, T., Plantard, O. G. N.. 2025-07-12. Map simulator of tick abundance in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.07.08.663759

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