Impacts of sea level rise on an endemic butterfly and its freshwater wetland habitat in the Florida Keys

Abstract

Coastal and island ecosystems are disproportionately vulnerable to sea level rise and other impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Using monitoring data collected between 2013 and 2024, we explore habitat shifts, population dynamics, and phenology of an endemic butterfly in the Florida Keys, Klots sawgrass skipper (Euphyes pilatka klotsi). Range-wide surveys of the butterfly and its associated habitat demonstrated that the butterflys sole host plant is decreasing in abundance at lower elevations, likely due to increased salinization. We also find declines in butterfly population size over an eleven-year period using distance sampling. Despite these declines, we find that Klots sawgrass skippers range has not contracted significantly over the study period. This study demonstrates that monitoring a single taxon and its host is useful for understanding how sea level rise impacts a keystone plant species in freshwater wetlands which are vital for the continued survival of a suite of rare and endemic species found in the Florida Keys. Projections of near-future sea level rise indicate that most or all of this habitat will be lost within several decades; the continued study of low-lying islands is critical to gain insight into the global phenomenon of sea level rise.