Mass mortality events in the sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean caused by long-distance circumpolar spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b

Abstract

Since 2020, the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus clade 2.3.4.4b has turned into the largest documented panzootic to date, reaching the sub-Antarctic region and Antarctica via the tip of South America in 2023. Here, we describe its recent arrival into the Indian Ocean sub-Antarctic archipelagos of Crozet and Kerguelen, where we first detected the virus in October 2024 in dead southern elephant seals, king penguins, gentoo penguins, brown skuas and kelp gulls. While the panzootic is ongoing, it has already caused unprecedented and alarming mortalities of southern elephant seals. We collected brain swabs from various seal and bird carcasses, subsequently isolated the virus and obtained 25 novel HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b sequences. Our phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses show that there have been independent introductions of the virus to Crozet and Kerguelen, from the distant South Georgia Islands in the Southern Atlantic, and not from the more nearby coasts of South Africa. Our results point to a year-long gap in genomic surveillance in the south polar region, obscuring how HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b is spreading in the sub-Antarctic and illustrating the difficulties in tracking pathogen dispersal in the region. Locally, our phylogenetic analyses show that the virus is transmitted between different species. Moreover, our serological analyses show that some southern elephant seal pups had mounted an anti-H5 antibody response. With the spread to Crozet and Kerguelen, HPAI H5N1 2.3.4.4b is moving ever closer to Australia and New Zealand, which currently remain free from infections with this strain, and represents a major threat to the sub-Antarctic wildlife. Our results provide key elements to enable stakeholders to anticipate the arrival and spread of the virus in remote areas of critical wildlife conservation concerns.