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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2025.01.09.632266

Entrenchment and contingency in neutral protein evolution with epistasis

Schmelkin, L.·Carnevale, V.·Haldane, A.·Townsend, J. P.·Chung, S.·Levy, R. P.·Kumar, S.
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Abstract

Protein sequence evolution in the presence of epistasis makes many previously acceptable amino acid residues at a site unfavorable over time. This phenomenon of entrenchment has also been observed with neutral substitutions using Potts Hamiltonian models. Here, we show that simulations using these models often evolve non-neutral proteins. We introduce a Neutral-with-Epistasis (NxE) model that incorporates purifying selection to conserve fitness, a requirement of neutral evolution. NxE protein evolution revealed a surprising lack of entrenchment, with site-specific amino-acid preferences remaining remarkably conserved, in biologically realistic time frames despite extensive residue coupling. Moreover, we found that the overdispersion of the molecular clock is caused by rate variation across sites introduced by epistasis in individual lineages, rather than by historical contingency. Therefore, substitutional entrenchment and rate contingency may indicate that adaptive and other non-neutral evolutionary processes were at play during protein evolution.

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Schmelkin, L., Carnevale, V., Haldane, A., Townsend, J. P., Chung, S., Levy, R. P., Kumar, S.. 2025-01-14. Entrenchment and contingency in neutral protein evolution with epistasis. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.01.09.632266

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