NicheFlow: Towards a foundation model for Species Distribution Modelling

Abstract

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) are crucial tools for understanding and predicting biodiversity patterns, yet they often struggle with limited data, biased sampling, and complex species-environment relationships. Here I present NicheFlow, a novel foundation model for SDMs that leverages generative AI to address these challenges and advance our ability to model and predict species distributions across taxa and environments. 2. NicheFlow employs a two-stage generative approach, combining species embeddings with two chained generative models, one to generate a distribution in environmental space, and a second to generate a distribution in geographic space. This architecture allows for the sharing of information across species and captures complex, non-linear relationships in environmental space. I trained NicheFlow on a comprehensive dataset of reptile distributions and evaluated its performance using both standard SDM metrics and zero-shot prediction tasks. 3. NicheFlow demonstrates good predictive performance, particularly for rare and data-deficient species. The model successfully generated plausible distributions for species not seen during training, showcasing its potential for zero-shot prediction. The learned species embeddings captured meaningful ecological information, revealing patterns in niche structure across taxa, latitude and range sizes. 4. As a proof-of-principle foundation model, NicheFlow represents a significant advance in species distribution modeling, offering a powerful tool for addressing pressing questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. Its ability to model joint species distributions and generate hypothetical niches opens new avenues for exploring ecological and evolutionary questions, including ancestral niche reconstruction and community assembly processes. This approach has the potential to transform our understanding of biodiversity patterns and improve our capacity to predict and manage species distributions in the face of global change.