Individual differences in uncertainty evaluation explain opposing exploratory behaviors in anxiety and apathy

Abstract

Decision-making in uncertain environments often leads to varied outcomes. Understanding how individuals interpret the causes of unexpected feedback is crucial for adaptive behavior and mental well-being. Uncertainty can be broadly categorized into two components: volatility and stochasticity. Volatility is about how quickly conditions change, impacting results. Stochasticity, on the other hand, refers to outcomes affected by random chance or "luck". Understanding these factors enables individuals to have more effective environmental analysis and strategy implementation (explore or exploit) for future decisions. This study investigates how anxiety and apathy, two prevalent affective states, influence the perceptions of uncertainty and exploratory behavior. Participants (N = 1001) completed a restless three-armed bandit task that was analyzed using latent state models. Anxious individuals perceived uncertainty as more volatile, leading to increased exploration and learning rates, especially after reward omission. Conversely, apathetic individuals viewed uncertainty as more stochastic, resulting in decreased exploration and learning rates. The perceived volatility-to-stochasticity ratio mediated the anxiety-exploration relationship post-adverse outcomes. Dimensionality reduction showed exploration and uncertainty estimation to be distinct but related latent factors shaping a manifold of adaptive behavior that is modulated by anxiety and apathy. These findings reveal distinct computational mechanisms for how anxiety and apathy influence decision-making, providing a framework for understanding cognitive and affective processes in neuropsychiatric disorders.