Flexibility in the face of climate change? A rapid and dramatic shift toward later spring migration in Hudsonian Godwits (Limosa haemastica)

Abstract

With rapid environmental change, shifts in migration timing are vitally important for maintaining population stability and have been widely documented. However, little remains known about how migrants are driving these shifts and what factors may influence the effective utilization of these strategies, limiting our ability to accurately assess species- and population-level vulnerability to climate change. The Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) is an extreme long-distance migratory shorebird that has (1) previously shifted its population-level migration timing and (2) exhibits sex-specific morphological differences. Therefore, we combined over a decade of light-level geolocator tracking data from a single breeding population with a historical predictive model to assess on-going shifts in migration timing while determining the time-shifting strategies utilized by each sex. Surprisingly, we found that godwit departure and arrival timing rapidly shifted 6 days later from 2010-2023 with no differences in timing between the sexes. Despite this change in migration timing, the population has maintained an average migratory duration of 24 days, suggesting that godwits are driving shifts in arrival timing entirely by shifting their nonbreeding ground departure, something rarely documented in long-distance migrants. Yet, we also found that godwits are not shifting their migration timing in the direction predicted by our model, providing evidence that this response may not be adaptive. These results emphasize the urgent need for a more holistic approach to assessing the relative vulnerability of migratory species and the adaptiveness of changes in migration timing.