Trends and drivers of hypoxic thickness and volume in Northern Gulf of Mexico: 1985-2018

Abstract

Hypoxia is a major environmental issue plaguing the commercially and ecologically important coastal waters of the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Several modeling studies have explored this phenomenon, but primarily focus on the areal extent of the mid-summer hypoxic zone. Research into the variability and drivers of hypoxic volume and thickness is also important in evaluating the seasonal progression of hypoxia and its impact on coastal resources. In this study, we compile data from multiple monitoring programs and develop a geospatial model capable of estimating hypoxic thickness and volume across the summer season. We adopt a space-time geostatistical framework and introduce a rank-based inverse normal transformation to simulate more realistic distributions of hypoxic layer thickness. Our findings indicate that, on average, there is a seasonal lag in peak hypoxic volume and thickness compared to hypoxic area. We assess long-term trends in different hypoxia metrics (area, thickness, and volume), and while most metrics did not exhibit significant trends, mid-summer hypoxic thickness is found to have increased at a rate of 5.9 cm/year (p<0.05) over the past three decades. In addition, spring nitrogen load is found to be the major driver of all hypoxia metrics, when considered along with other riverine inputs and meteorological factors in multiple regression models. Hypoxic volume, which was also often influenced by east-west wind velocities, was found to be more predictable than hypoxic thickness.