Marine protected areas promote resilience of kelp forests to marine heatwaves by preserving trophic cascades

Kumagai, J. A.; Goodman, M. C.; Villasenor-Derbez, J. C.; Schoeman, D. S.; Cavanaugh, K. C.; Bell, T. W.; Micheli, F.; De Leo, G. A.; Arafeh-Dalmau, N.

doi:10.1101/2024.04.10.588833

bioRxiv · 10.1101/2024.04.10.588833

Marine protected areas promote resilience of kelp forests to marine heatwaves by preserving trophic cascades

Kumagai, J. A.·Goodman, M. C.·Villasenor-Derbez, J. C.·Schoeman, D. S.·Cavanaugh, K. C.·Bell, T. W.·Micheli, F.·De Leo, G. A.·Arafeh-Dalmau, N.

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Abstract

Under accelerating threats from climate change impacts, marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as climate adaptation tools to enhance the resilience of marine ecosystems. Yet, debate persists as to whether and how MPAs may promote resilience to climate shocks. Here, we empirically assess whether a network of 85 temperate MPAs in coastal waters promotes resilience against marine heatwaves in Central and Southern California. We use 38 years of satellite-derived kelp cover to test whether MPAs enhance the resistance of kelp forest ecosystems to, and recovery from, the unprecedented 2014-2016 marine heatwave regime. We also leverage a 20-year time series of subtidal community surveys to understand whether protection and recovery of sea urchin predators within MPAs explain emergent patterns in kelp forest resilience through trophic cascades. We find that fully protected MPAs (i.e. no-take marine reserves) significantly enhance the resistance to and recovery of kelp forests to marine heatwaves in Southern California, but not in Central California. Differences in regional responses to the heatwaves may be partly explained by three-level trophic interactions comprising kelp, urchins, and predators of urchins. Urchin abundances in Southern California MPAs are significantly lower within fully protected MPAs during and after the heatwave, while the abundance of their predators are higher. In Central California, there is no significant difference in urchin abundances within protected areas as the current urchin predator, sea otters, are unilaterally protected. Therefore, we provide evidence that fully protected MPAs can be effective climate adaptation tools, but their ability to enhance resilience to extreme climate events depends upon region-specific environmental and ecological dynamics. As nations progress to protect 30% of the oceans by 2030 scientists and managers should consider whether protection will increase resilience to climate-change impacts given their local ecological contexts, and what additional measures may be needed.

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Kumagai, J. A., Goodman, M. C., Villasenor-Derbez, J. C., Schoeman, D. S., Cavanaugh, K. C., Bell, T. W., Micheli, F., De Leo, G. A., Arafeh-Dalmau, N.. 2024-04-14. Marine protected areas promote resilience of kelp forests to marine heatwaves by preserving trophic cascades. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.04.10.588833

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