Quantification and modeling of grapevine yield loss as a function of the severity of downy mildew on foliage and cluster

Abstract

To quantify the relationship between grapevine disease severity and crop losses at the plant scale, we conducted a three-year field experiment at two sites near Bordeaux (France), surveying mildews and rots on both foliage and clusters. A first set of analysis indicated that only downy mildew (DM) significantly affects yield (mass of grape clusters harvested) in our experimental conditions. We then leverage this situation to model the relationship between DM severity (measured by standardized AUDPC) and yield losses at vine stock scale. For AUDPC ranging from 0 to 10%, an increase of the severity of DM of 1% on the clusters decrease yield by 2% regardless of years and sites. These values ranges from 1.1% to 9% when considering the severity of DM on the foliage, depending on sites and years. This variability was correlated with a moisture risk index calculated between crop stages inflorescences visibles to pre-ripening of the berries. An increase of the severity of DM of 1% on the foliage decreases yield by 1.2% during dry year (quantile 10% of the index), by 3.3% during intermediate year (median the index) and by 7.3% during wet year (quantile 90% of the index). An important perspective will be to fit and validate the proposed statistical models with datasets covering a broader range of climatic, geographic and agronomic conditions, including the characterization of cultivar-specific responses.