Stand age diversity dampens forests sensitivity to climate change

Abstract

Stand age significantly influences the functioning of forest ecosystems by shaping structural and physiological plant traits, affecting water and carbon budgets. Forest age distribution is determined by the interplay of tree mortality and regeneration, influenced by both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Thus, human-driven alteration of tree age distribution presents an underexplored avenue for enhancing forest stability and resilience. In our study, we investigated how age distribution impacts the stability and resilience of the forest carbon budget under both current and future climate conditions. We employed a biogeochemical model on three historically managed forest stands, projecting their future as undisturbed systems, i.e., left at their natural evolution with no management interventions. The model, driven by climate data from five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios and one baseline scenario, spanned 11 age classes for each stand. Our findings indicate that Net Primary Production (NPP) peaks in the young and middle-aged classes (16- to 50-year-old), aligning with ecological theories, regardless of the climate scenario. Under climate change, the beech forest exhibited an increase in NPP and maintained stability across all age classes, while resilience remained constant with rising atmospheric CO2 and temperatures. However, NPP declined under climate change scenarios for the Norway spruce and Scots pine sites. In these coniferous forests, stability and resilience were more influenced. These results underscore the necessity of accounting for age classes and species-specific reactions in evaluating the impacts of climate change on forest stability and resilience. We, therefore, advocate for customized management strategies that enhance the adaptability of forests to changing climatic conditions, taking into account the diverse responses of different species and age groups to climate.