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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2023.07.11.548524

A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal

Retkute, R.·Thurston, W.·Cressman, K.·Gilligan, C. A.
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Abstract

As climate change leads to new areas being under threat from emerg-ing pests, there is increasing demand for approaches combining mechanistic models and geospatial information. Forecasting based on modelling can in-form surveillance, early warning and management. This paper introduces a novel framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and migra-tion using knowledge of pest biology, climate and remote sensing data, wind trajectories and desert locust survey data from Locust Hub (FAO). Fur-thermore, we propose an algorithm for forecasting short-term and long-term desert locust migration based on limited reporting data.

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Retkute, R., Thurston, W., Cressman, K., Gilligan, C. A.. 2023-07-12. A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal. https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.07.11.548524

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