Interplay between demography and selection: a forward model illuminates the temporal genetic signatures of rapid adaptation in plant pathogens

Abstract

Pathogen species are experiencing strong joint demographic and selective events, especially when they adapt to a new host, for example through overcoming plant resistance. Stochasticity in the founding event and the associated demographic variations hinder our understanding of the expected evolutionary trajectories and the genetic structure emerging at both neutral and selected loci. What would be the typical genetic signatures of such a rapid adaptation event is not elucidated. Here, we build a demogenetic model to monitor pathogen population dynamics and genetic evolution on two host compartments (susceptible and resistant). We design our model to fit two plant pathogen life cycles, with and without host alternation. Our aim is to draw a typology of eco-evolutionary dynamics. Using time-series clustering, we identify three main scenarios: 1) small variations in the pathogen population size and small changes in genetic structure, 2) a strong founder event on the resistant host that in turn leads to the emergence of genetic structure on the susceptible host, and 3) evolutionary rescue that results in a strong founder event on the resistant host, preceded by a bottleneck on the susceptible host. We pinpoint differences between life cycles with notably more evolutionary rescue with host alternation. Beyond the selective event itself, the demographic trajectory imposes specific changes in the genetic structure of the pathogen population. Most of these genetic changes are transient, with a signature of resistance overcoming that vanishes within a few years only. Considering time-series is therefore of utmost importance to accurately decipher pathogen evolution.