Variola virus is as old as the earliest historical lines of evidence suggest

Abstract

Archaeovirology efforts provided a rich portrait of the evolutionary history of variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox. These studies revealed frequent viral lineage extinction and a relatively recent origin of VARV as a human pathogen ([~] 1,700 years ago, ya). This contrasts with historical records suggesting the presence of smallpox as early as 3,500 ya. By performing an analysis of ancestry components in modern, historic, and ancient VARV genomes, we unveil the progressive drifting of VARV lineages from a common ancestral population and we show that a small proportion of Viking-Age ancestry persisted until the 18th century. After the split of the P-I and P-II lineages, which occurred before the onset of smallpox vaccination, the former (but not the latter) experienced a severe bottleneck. We suggest this was due to the distinct epidemiology of the two lineages, which display remarkably different disease severity. As for the emergence of VARV, we corrected time estimates by accounting for the time-dependent rate phenomenon. Using this approach, we estimate that VARV emerged earlier than 3,800 ya, thus supporting its presence in ancient societies, including Egypt, as pockmarked mummies suggest. ImportanceNow eradicated, smallpox was one of the most devastating human diseases, causing the death of at least 300 million people in the 20th century. Humans were the only known host of variola virus, but the time-frame of its emergence in our species has been a matter of debate. Specifically, molecular dating suggested a relatively recent origin, whereas historical sources indicated the presence of VARV in ancient societies. By applying population genetic methods, we analyzed the ancestry components in modern and historic VARV genomes, and we found a progressive drifting of VARV lineages from a common ancestral population. By accounting for the common observation that rates of viral evolution scale negatively with the time-frame of measurement, we estimated that VARV emerged earlier than 3800 years ago. Thus, out data settle a controversy and provide novel insight into the origin and evolution of one of the most historically relevant human pathogens.