Temporal matches and mismatches between monarch butterfly and milkweed population changes over the past 12,000 years

Abstract

In intimate ecological interactions, the interdependency of species may result in correlated demographic histories. For species of conservation concern, understanding the long-term dynamics of such interactions may shed light on the drivers of population decline. Here we address the demographic history of the monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus, and its dominant host plant, the common milkweed Asclepias syriaca, using broad-scale sampling and genomic inference. Because genetic resources for milkweed have lagged behind those for monarchs, we first release a chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation for common milkweed. Next, we show that despite its enormous geographic range across eastern North America, A. syriaca is best characterized as a single, roughly panmictic population. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation via Random Forests (ABC-RF), a machine learning method for reconstructing demographic histories, we show that both monarchs and milkweed experienced concurrent range expansion during the most recent recession of North American glaciers [~]12,000 years ago. Our data identify an expansion of milkweed during the large-scale clearing of eastern forests ([~]200 years ago) but was inconclusive as to expansion or contraction of the monarch butterfly population during this time. Finally, our results indicate that neither species experienced a population contraction over the past 75 years. Thus, the well-documented decline of monarch abundance over the past 40 years is not visible in our genomic dataset, reflecting a possible mismatch of the overwintering census population to effective population size in this species.