Machine learning guided signal enrichment for ultrasensitive plasma tumor burden monitoring

Abstract

In solid tumor oncology, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is poised to transform care through accurate assessment of minimal residual disease (MRD) and therapeutic response monitoring. To overcome the sparsity of ctDNA fragments in low tumor fraction (TF) settings and increase MRD sensitivity, we previously leveraged genome-wide mutational integration through plasma whole genome sequencing (WGS). We now introduce MRD-EDGE, a composite machine learning-guided WGS ctDNA single nucleotide variant (SNV) and copy number variant (CNV) detection platform designed to increase signal enrichment. MRD-EDGE uses deep learning and a ctDNA-specific feature space to increase SNV signal to noise enrichment in WGS by 300X compared to our previous noise suppression platform MRDetect. MRD-EDGE also reduces the degree of aneuploidy needed for ultrasensitive CNV detection through WGS from 1Gb to 200Mb, thereby expanding its applicability to a wider range of solid tumors. We harness the improved performance to track changes in tumor burden in response to neoadjuvant immunotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer and demonstrate ctDNA shedding in precancerous colorectal adenomas. Finally, the radical signal to noise enrichment in MRD-EDGE enables de novo mutation calling in melanoma without matched tumor, yielding clinically informative TF monitoring for patients on immune checkpoint inhibition.