The response of a metapopulation to a changing environment

Abstract

A species distributed across diverse environments may adapt to local conditions. We ask how quickly such a species changes its range in response to changed conditions. Szep et al (Evolution, 2021) used the infinite island model to find the stationary distribution of allele frequencies and deme sizes. We extend this to find how a metapopulation responds to changes in carrying capacity, selection strength, or migration rate when deme sizes are fixed. We further develop a "fixed-state" approximation. Under this approximation, polymorphism is only possible for a narrow range of habitat proportions when selection is weak compared to drift, but for a much wider range otherwise. When rates of selection or migration relative to drift change in a single deme of the metapopulation, the population takes a time of order 1/m to reach the new equilibrium. However, even with many loci, there can be substantial fluctuations in net adaptation, because at each locus, alleles randomly get lost or fixed. Thus, in a finite metapopulation, variation may gradually be lost by chance, even if it would persist in an infinite metapopulation. When conditions change across the whole metapopulation, there can be rapid change, which is predicted well by the fixed-state approximation.