Inferring the intrinsic mutational fitness landscape of influenza-like evolving antigens from temporally ordered sequence data

Abstract

There still are no effective long-term protective vaccines against viruses that continuously evolve under immune pressure such as seasonal influenza, which has caused, and can cause, devastating epidemics in the human population. For finding such a broadly protective immunization strategy it is useful to know how easily the virus can escape via mutation from specific antibody responses. This information is encoded in the fitness landscape of the viral proteins (i.e., knowledge of the viral fitness as a function of sequence). Here we present a computational method to infer the intrinsic mutational fitness landscape of influenza-like evolving antigens from yearly sequence data. We test inference performance with computer-generated sequence data that are based on stochastic simulations mimicking basic features of immune-driven viral evolution. Although the numerically simulated model does create a phylogeny based on the allowed mutations, the inference scheme does not use this information. This provides a contrast to other methods that rely on reconstruction of phylogenetic trees. Our method just needs a sufficient number of samples over multiple years. With our method we are able to infer single-as well as pairwise mutational fitness effects from the simulated sequence time series for short antigenic proteins. Our fitness inference approach may have potential future use for design of immunization protocols by identifying intrinsically vulnerable immune target combinations on antigens that evolve under immune-driven selection. This approach may in the future be applied to influenza and other novel viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, which evolves and, like influenza, might continue to escape the natural and vaccine-mediated immune pressures.