Inferring viral occurrence patterns through a synthetic data simulation

Abstract

Viruses infecting humans are manifold and several of them provoke significant morbidity and mortality. Simulations creating large synthetic datasets from observed multiple viral strain infections in a limited population sample can be a powerful tool to infer significant pathogen occurrence and interaction patterns, particularly if limited number of observed data units is available. Here, to demonstrate diverse human papillomavirus (HPV) strain occurrence patterns, we used log-linear models combined with Bayesian framework for graphical independence network (GIN) analysis. That is, to simulate datasets based on modeling the probabilistic associations between observed viral data points, i.e different viral strain infections in a set of population samples. Our GIN analysis outperformed in precision all oversampling methods tested for simulating large synthetic viral strain-level prevalence dataset from observed set of HPVs data. Altogether, we demonstrate that network modeling is a potent tool for creating synthetic viral datasets for comprehensive pathogen occurrence and interaction pattern estimations.