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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2021.01.25.427822

The competition dynamics of resistant and sensitive infections

Lee, T. E.·Bonhoeffer, S.·Penny, M. A.
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Abstract

Antimicrobial resistance is a major health problem with complex dynamics. Resistance may occur in an area because treated infections mutated and developed resistance, and the proportion of infections in a population may then increase. We developed a novel and flexible model that captures several features of resistance dynamics and competition. The model is able to account for many antimicrobials and thus can generally explore competition dynamics and their impact on pathogens and bacteria. Unlike simpler models, our nested model allows the population of resistant pathogen to smoothly increase or decrease. Time dependent dynamics are incorporated into difference equations which examines the effects of 12 parameters. This enables us to explicitly include three key competition dynamics: the transmission cost of resistance that occurs between hosts, the fitness cost of resistance that occurs within untreated hosts, and the release of this competition (from the fitness cost) that occurs once a host is treated. For malaria, our results suggest that without competitive release, drug resistance does not emerge. However, once emerged, competitive release has little effect, and the best way to mitigate the spread is to ensure that treatment is very effective.

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Lee, T. E., Bonhoeffer, S., Penny, M. A.. 2021-01-27. The competition dynamics of resistant and sensitive infections. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.25.427822

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