A skyline birth-death process for inferring the population size from a reconstructed tree with occurrences

Abstract

Phylodynamic models generally aim at jointly inferring phylogenetic relationships, model parameters, and more recently, population size through time for clades of interest, based on molecular sequence data. In the fields of epidemiology and macroevolution these models can be used to estimate, respectively, the past number of infected individuals (prevalence) or the past number of species (paleodiversity) through time. Recent years have seen the development of "total-evidence" analyses, which combine molecular and morphological data from extant and past sampled individuals in a unified Bayesian inference framework. Even sampled individuals characterized only by their sampling time, i.e. lacking morphological and molecular data, which we call occurrences, provide invaluable information to reconstruct past population sizes. Here, we present new methodological developments around the Fossilized Birth-Death Process enabling us to (i) efficiently incorporate occurrence data while remaining computationally tractable and scalable; (ii) consider piecewise-constant birth, death and sampling rates; and (iii) reconstruct past population sizes, with or without knowledge of the underlying tree. We implement our method in the RevBayes software environment, enabling its use along with a large set of models of molecular and morphological evolution, and validate the inference workflow using simulations under a wide range of conditions. We finally illustrate our new implementation using two empirical datasets stemming from the fields of epidemiology and macroevolution. In epidemiology, we apply our model to the Covid-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship. We infer the total prevalence throughout the outbreak, by taking into account jointly the case count record (occurrences) along with viral sequences for a fraction of infected individuals. In macroevolution, we present an empirical case study of cetaceans. We infer the diversity trajectory using molecular and morphological data from extant taxa, morphological data from fossils, as well as numerous fossil occurrences. Our case studies highlight that the advances we present allow us to further bridge the gap between between epidemiology and pathogen genomics, as well as paleontology and molecular phylogenetics.