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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2020.01.28.923169

Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model

Shao, P.·Shan, Y.
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Abstract

BackgroundThe 2019 new coronavirus, "2019-nCoV", was discovered from Wuhan Viral Pneumonia cases in December 2019, and was named by the World Health Organization on January 12, 2020. In the early stage, people knows little about the 2019-nCoV virus was not clear, and the spread period was encountering Chinas annual spring migration, which made the epidemic spread rapidly from Wuhan to almost all provinces in China. MethodsThis study builds a SEIRD model that considers the movement of people across regions, revealing the effects of three measures on controlling the spread of the epidemic.Based on MATLAB R2017a, computational experiments were performed to simulate the epidemic prevention and control measures. FindingsThe research results show that current prevention and control measures in China are very necessary. This study further validates the concerns of international and domestic experts regarding asymptomatic transmission (E-status). InterpretationThe results of this study are applicable to explore the impact of the implementation of relevant measures on the prevention and control of epidemic spread, and to identify key individuals that may exist during the spread of the epidemic.

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Shao, P., Shan, Y.. 2020-01-28. Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.28.923169

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