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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2020.01.19.911669

A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus

Chen, T.·Rui, J.·Wang, Q.·Zhao, Z.·Cui, J.-A.·Yin, L.
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Abstract

As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.

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Chen, T., Rui, J., Wang, Q., Zhao, Z., Cui, J.-A., Yin, L.. 2020-01-19. A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.19.911669

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