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bioRxiv · 10.1101/198168

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

Du, X.·King, A. A.·Woods, R. J.·Pascual, M.
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Abstract

Inter-pandemic or seasonal influenza exacts an enormous annual burden both in terms of human health and economic impact. Incidence prediction ahead of season remains a challenge largely because of the virus antigenic evolution. We propose here a forecasting approach that incorporates evolutionary change into a mechanistic epidemiological model. The proposed models are simple enough that their parameters can be estimated from retrospective surveillance data. These models link amino-acid sequences of hemagglutinin epitopes with a transmission model for seasonal H3N2 influenza, also informed by H1N1 levels. With a monthly time series of H3N2 incidence in the United States over 10 years, we demonstrate the feasibility of prediction ahead of season and an accurate real-time forecast for the 2016/2017 influenza season.\n\nSUMMARYSkillful forecasting of seasonal (H3N2) influenza incidence ahead of the season is shown to be possible by means of a transmission model that explicitly tracks evolutionary change in the virus, integrating information from both epidemiological surveillance and readily available genetic sequences.

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Du, X., King, A. A., Woods, R. J., Pascual, M.. 2017-10-04. Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2). https://doi.org/10.1101/198168

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