Towards a Global Framework for Estimating Acclimation and Thermal Breadth that Predicts Risk from Climate Change

Abstract

Thermal breadth, the range of body temperatures over which organisms perform well, and thermal acclimation, the ability to alter optimal performance temperature and critical thermal maximum or minimum with changing temperatures, reflect the capacity of organisms to respond to temperature variability and are thus crucial traits for coping with climate change. Although there are theoretical frameworks for predicting thermal breadths and acclimation, the predictions of these models have not been tested across taxa, latitudes, body sizes, traits, habitats, and methodological factors. Here, we address this knowledge gap using simulation modeling and empirical analyses of >2,000 acclimation strengths from >500 species using four datasets of ectotherms. After accounting for important statistical interactions, covariates, and experimental artifacts, we reveal that i) acclimation rate scales positively with body size contributing to a negative association between body size and thermal breadth across species and ii) acclimation capacity increases with body size, seasonality, and latitude (to mid-latitudinal regions) and is regularly underestimated for most organisms. Contrary to suggestions that plasticity theory and empirical work on thermal acclimation are incongruent, these findings are consistent with theory on phenotypic plasticity. We further validated our framework by demonstrating that it could predict global extinction risk to amphibian biodiversity from climate change.