Random Drift With A Determined Outcome: A Parsimonious Null Model OfNeanderthal Replacement By Modern Humans Via Neutral Species Drift

Abstract

The processes that led to the demise of the Neanderthals and their replacement by modern humans have been the object of speculation, research, and heated debate. Most hypotheses fall into one of two categories: one highlights the role of climate change, epidemics, or other environmental pressures in the Neanderthals demise, and the other attributes it to direct or indirect competition with modern humans, who seem to have occupied the same ecological niche. The latter are based on the assumption that modern humans benefited from some selective advantage over Neanderthals that led to the latters extinction. We show that a scenario that includes migration and selectively neutral species drift can explain the Neanderthals replacement and is in line with the archaeological evidence. Our model offers a parsimonious alternative to those that invoke external factors or selective advantage, and can represent a null hypothesis in assessing such alternatives. We show that for a wide range of parameters this hypothesis cannot be rejected. Moreover, we suggest that although selection and environmental factors may or may not have played a role in the interspecies dynamics of the Neanderthals and modern humans, the eventual outcome of these dynamics, the replacement of the Neanderthals, was the result of the hominid migration dynamics at the end of the middle Paleolithic, namely repeated migration of modern humans from Africa into the Levant and Europe.\n\nSignificance statementMultiple factors have been proposed as possible drivers of the extinction of the Neanderthals and their replacement by modern humans circa 40,000 years ago: climate change, epidemics, and - most prominently - a selective advantage, such as superior cognitive capacity of modern humans over Neanderthals. We propose an alternative model that includes only migration of modern humans out of Africa into the Levant and Europe. We show that, given that the two species occupied a similar ecological niche, modern humans were destined to replace the Neanderthals even under a neutral scenario in which neither species has a selective advantage.