Water and temperature stress define the optimal flowering period for wheat in south-eastern Australia

Abstract

Across the Australian wheat belt, the time at which wheat flowers is a critical determinant of yield. In all environments an optimal flowering period (OFP) exists which is defined by decreasing frost risk, and increasing water and heat stress. Despite their critical importance, OFPs have not been comprehensively defined across south eastern Australias (SEA) cropping zone using yield estimates incorporating temperature, radiation and water-stress. In this study, the widely validated cropping systems model APSIM was used to simulate wheat yield and flowering date, with reductions in yield applied for frost and heat damage based on air temperatures during sensitive periods. Simulated crops were sown at weekly intervals from April 1 to July 15 of each year. The relationship between flowering date and grain yield was established for 28 locations using 51-years (1963-2013) of climate records. We defined OFPs as the flowering period which was associated with a mean yield of [≥] 95% of maximum yield from the combination of 51 seasons and 16 sowing dates. OFPs for wheat in SEA varied with site and season and were largely driven by seasonal water supply and demand, with extremes of heat and temperature having a secondary though auto-correlated effect. Quantifying OFPs will be a vital first step to identify suitable genotype x sowing date combinations to maximise yield in different locations, particularly given recent and predicted regional climate shifts including the decline in autumn rainfall.