Approximate Likelihood Inference of Complex Population Histories and Recombination from Multiple Genomes

Abstract

We introduce ABLE (Approximate Blockwise Likelihood Estimation), a novel composite likelihood framework based on a recently introduced summary of sequence variation: the blockwise site frequency spectrum (bSFS). This simulation-based framework uses the the frequencies of bSFS configurations to jointly model demographic history and recombination and is explicitly designed to make inference using multiple whole genomes or genome-wide multi-locus data (e.g. RADSeq) catering to the needs of researchers studying model or non-model organisms respectively. The flexible nature of our method further allows for arbitrarily complex population histories using unphased and unpolarized whole genome sequences. In silico experiments demonstrate accurate parameter estimates across a range of divergence models with increasing complexity, and as a proof of principle, we infer the demographic history of the two species of orangutan from multiple genome sequences (over 160 Mbp in length) from each species. Our results indicate that the two orangutan species split approximately 650-950 thousand years ago but experienced a pulse of secondary contact much more recently, most likely during a period of low sea-level South East Asia ([~]300,000 years ago). Unlike previous analyses we can reject a history of continuous gene flow and co-estimate genome-wide recombination. ABLE is available for download at https://github.com/champost/ABLE.