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bioRxiv · 10.1101/023747

Incomplete protection against dengue virus type 2 re-infection in Peru

Brett M. Forshey·Robert C. Reiner·Sandra Olkowski·Amy C. Morrison·Angelica Espinoza·Kanya C. Long·Stalin Vilcarromero·Wilma Casanova·Helen J. Wearing·Eric S. Halsey·Tadeusz J. Kochel·Thomas W. Scott·Steven T. Stoddard
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Abstract

Background. Nearly half of the worlds population is at risk for dengue, yet no licensed vaccine or anti-viral drug is currently available. Dengue is caused by any of four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 through DENV-4), and infection by a DENV serotype is assumed to provide life-long protection against re-infection by that serotype. We investigated the validity of this fundamental assumption during a large dengue epidemic caused by DENV-2 in Iquitos, Peru, in 2010-2011, 15 years after the first outbreak of DENV-2 in the region. Methodology/Principal Findings. We estimated the age-dependent prevalence of serotype-specific DENV antibodies from longitudinal cohort studies conducted between 1993 and 2010. During the 2010-2011 epidemic, active dengue cases were identified through active community- and clinic-based febrile surveillance studies, and acute inapparent DENV infections were identified through contact tracing studies. Based on the age-specific prevalence of DENV-2 neutralizing antibodies, the age distribution of DENV-2 cases was markedly older than expected. Homologous protection was estimated at 35.1% (95% confidence interval: 0% -- 65.2%). At the individual level, pre-existing DENV-2 antibodies were associated with an incomplete reduction in the frequency of symptoms. Among dengue cases, 43% (26/66) exhibited elevated DENV-2 neutralizing antibody titers for years prior to infection, compared with 76% (13/17) of inapparent infections (age-adjusted odds ratio: 4.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1 - 17.7). Conclusions/Significance. Our data indicate that protection from homologous DENV re-infection may be incomplete in some circumstances, which provides context for the limited vaccine efficacy against DENV-2 in recent trials. Further studies are warranted to confirm this phenomenon and to evaluate the potential role of incomplete homologous protection in DENV transmission dynamics. Author SummaryHomotypic immunity against DENV infection has been assumed to be complete and lifelong, and to our knowledge, instances of homologous DENV re-infection have not been rigorously documented. However, few long-term studies have been conducted in such a way that homologous re-infection could be observed, if it did in fact occur. Our study provides evidence that homologous re-infection may occur in certain circumstances. We draw from data collected during a 2010-2011 DENV-2 epidemic in northeastern Peru, 15 years after the initial DENV-2 outbreak in the region. This finding has significant implications for our understanding of dengue epidemiology and for dengue vaccine formulation, which may need to consider multiple genotypes of each serotype. Data from other long-term dengue epidemiology studies should be analyzed to determine of homologous re-infection is a more widespread phenomenon.

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Brett M. Forshey, Robert C. Reiner, Sandra Olkowski, Amy C. Morrison, Angelica Espinoza, Kanya C. Long, Stalin Vilcarromero, Wilma Casanova, Helen J. Wearing, Eric S. Halsey, Tadeusz J. Kochel, Thomas W. Scott, Steven T. Stoddard. 2015-11-11. Incomplete protection against dengue virus type 2 re-infection in Peru. https://doi.org/10.1101/023747

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