Using Bayesian multilevel whole-genome regression models for partial pooling of estimation sets in genomic prediction

Abstract

Estimation set size is an important determinant of genomic prediction accuracy. Plant breeding programs are characterized by a high degree of structuring, particularly into populations. This hampers establishment of large estimation sets for each population. Pooling populations increases estimation set size but ignores unique genetic characteristics of each. A possible solution is partial pooling with multilevel models, which allows estimating population specific marker effects while still leveraging information across populations. We developed a Bayesian multilevel whole-genome regression model and compared its performance to that of the popular BayesA model applied to each population separately (no pooling) and to the joined data set (complete pooling). As example we analyzed a wide array of traits from the nested association mapping maize population. There we show that for small population sizes (e.g., < 50), partial pooling increased prediction accuracy over no or complete pooling for populations represented in the estimation set. No pooling was superior however when populations were large. In another example data set of interconnected biparental maize populations either partial or complete pooling were superior, depending on the trait. A simulation showed that no pooling is superior when differences in genetic effects among populations are large and partial pooling when they are intermediate. With small differences, partial and complete pooling achieved equally high accuracy. For prediction of new populations, partial and complete pooling had very similar accuracy in all cases. We conclude that partial pooling with multilevel models can maximize the potential of pooling by making optimal use of information in pooled estimation sets.