Biology subjects

van de Pol, M.

Publications and source records attributed to van de Pol, M..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

The extinction crisis of the world's amphibians is easing rapidly

A recent paper (Nature 622, 308-14)1 analysed changes in the extinction risk of 7,102 amphibian species from 1980 to 2004 to 2022 using the Red List Index2,3 (RLI) of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It concluded that the global amphibian extinction crisis has not abated. However, this conclusion appears too pessimistic and not supported by the data. Rather, it is a result of intrinsic limitations of the RLI. These limitations have implications well beyond amphibians, as the RLI is used worldwide for policy, for example as a headline indicator for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework4.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less responsive to climatic variation

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two European songbirds covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity compared with those in evergreen and mixed habitats. Strikingly, however, the lowest sensitivity was seen in populations that had experienced the greatest change in climate. Therefore, we predict that the strongest phenological advancement will not occur in those populations with the highest sensitivity. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds

Kubelka et al. (Science, 9 November 2018, p. 680-683) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Weighted trait-abundance early warning signals better predict population collapse

Predicting population collapse in the face of unprecedented anthropogenic pressures is a key challenge in conservation. Abundance-based early warning signals have been suggested as a possible solution to this problem; however, they are known to be susceptible to the spatial and temporal subsampling ubiquitous to abundance estimates of wild population. Recent work has shown that composite early warning methods that take into account changes in fitness-related phenotypic traits - such as body size - alongside traditional abundance-based signals are better able to predict collapse, as trait dynamic estimates are less susceptible to sampling protocols. However, these previously developed composite early warning methods weighted the relative contribution of abundance and trait dynamics evenly. Here we present an extension to this work where the relative importance of different data types can be weighted in line with the quality of available data. Using data from a small-scale experimental system we demonstrate that weighted indicators can improve the accuracy of composite early warning signals by >60%. Our work shows that non-uniform weighting can increase the likelihood of correctly detecting a true positive early warning signal in wild populations, with direct relevance for conservation management.

ecology↗