Biology subjects

de Wit, M. M.

Publications and source records attributed to de Wit, M. M..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Implications of future change scenarios for mosquito-borne disease transmission in the Netherlands

BackgroundMosquito-borne virus transmission is shaped by its ecological context, including land use, climate, and population dynamics. Future changes in these factors may therefore affect the risk and intensity of Usutu virus (USUV) and West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in the Netherlands. Methodology & findingsWe compared a reference scenario to four future Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios developed for the Netherlands, which differed in land use, host distribution, mosquito distribution, and temperature. Temperature (between +1.0{degrees}C and +1.7{degrees}C) and mosquito abundance (between +5% and +10%) were predicted to increase during the transmission season across the scenarios. Scenario effects on hosts differed between species. We found that outbreak size and growth rate were expected to increase in all future scenarios for both USUV and WNV. These effects were most pronounced early in the season and in scenarios characterised by a high temperature increase and little concern about environmental change. Changes in outbreak risk differed between locations due to spatial variation in changes in host and vector abundance ConclusionsAcross a range of possible future scenarios, USUV and WNV outbreaks are expected to become larger, grow faster, and last longer. This is mostly driven by increased temperatures, highlighting the importance of climate mitigation measures to reduce disease outbreak risk and impact.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Silent reservoirs are shaping disease emergence: the case of Usutu virus in the Netherlands

Disentangling contributions of different hosts to disease transmission is highly complex, but critical for improving predictions, surveillance, and response. This is particularly challenging in wildlife, with pathogens often infecting multiple species and data collection being difficult. Using the emergence of Usutu virus (USUV) in the Netherlands as a case study, we demonstrate the use of an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework on diverse data sources to uncover drivers of spatio-temporal wildlife disease emergence. We calibrated single- and multi-host mechanistic transmission models to five types of wildlife surveillance and research data, describing molecular and serological evidence of USUV in birds. Although Eurasian blackbirds, the primary target species for surveillance, were most severely affected, our models indicated that USUV could not persist in blackbirds alone. Our framework provided statistical support for additional, unobserved bird species to have contributed to transmission. This population of bird species is characterised by limited infection mortality, a longer lifespan, and likely further dispersal than blackbirds. Immunity in this population appears to have protected blackbirds from further USUV-related population decline. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple host populations to understand outbreak dynamics. Neglecting the multi-host context of transmission can impact the reliability of predictions and projected impact of interventions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Mechanistic models for West Nile Virus transmission:A systematic review of features, aims, and parameterisation

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterised by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 67 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile Virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of fifteen criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared to the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parameterising such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesise the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

ecology↗