bioRxiv2026
Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to study complex multiscale biological systems, particularly in cancer research. However, their high-dimensional parameter spaces, stochasticity, and computational costs pose significant challenges for uncertainty quantification, calibration, and systematic comparison of competing mechanistic hypotheses. PhysiCell has evolved into a growing ecosystem of open-source tools supporting physics-based multicellular modeling, including model construction, visualization, experimental data integration (e.g., spatial multiomics), and downstream output analysis. However, despite these advances, systematic support for uncertainty-aware model analysis, scalable parameter exploration, and formal calibration workflows remains limited. Here, we introduce UQ-PhysiCell, an open-source Python package that enables uncertainty quantification, calibration, and model selection for PhysiCell models using a modular and scalable workflow. UQ-PhysiCell acts as a manager of PhysiCell simulation inputs and outputs, including parameters, initial conditions, rules, and MultiCellDS-compliant objects, and provides automated orchestration of large ensembles of simulations. The framework supports multiple levels of parallelism to accelerate the analysis, including the parallel execution of independent simulations, stochastic replicates, and downstream analysis tasks. UQ-PhysiCell integrates directly with established Python libraries for sensitivity analysis, optimization, Bayesian inference, and surrogate modeling, allowing users to construct customized pipelines that match their modeling goals and computational resource requirements. UQ-PhysiCell decouples model execution from statistical analysis and emphasizes extensibility and reproducibility. This lowers the barrier to rigorous uncertainty-aware analysis and supports systematic evaluation of PhysiCell models in biological and biomedical research. Author summaryWe developed UQ-PhysiCell to address a key challenge in agent-based modeling: the systematic quantification of uncertainty in complex stochastic simulations. PhysiCell is widely used to model multicellular biological systems, particularly in cancer research; however, practical tools for uncertainty analysis, calibration, and model comparison are often developed in an ad hoc manner. This makes the results difficult to reproduce and limits the ability to rigorously evaluate competing biological hypotheses. UQ-PhysiCell provides a flexible Python framework that manages the inputs and outputs of PhysiCell simulations and enables large-scale computational analysis. We designed the software to be modular, allowing users to build their own analysis pipelines and combine different methodologies for sensitivity analysis, calibration, and model selection. Rather than enforcing a single workflow, UQ-PhysiCell supports customization to match specific scientific questions and computational requirements. To make uncertainty-aware analyses feasible for computationally intensive agent-based models, UQ-PhysiCell implements multiple parallelism strategies, enabling the concurrent execution of simulations, stochastic replicates, and downstream analyses. UQ-PhysiCell promotes reproducibility, scalability, and methodological flexibility. This helps researchers move beyond single best-fit simulations toward more reliable and interpretable computational modeling.