Biology subjects

Worobey, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Worobey, M..

16 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Dairy cattle movement networks govern the spread and persistence of H5N1 B3.13 in the United States

Avian influenza virus H5N1 is predominantly found in wild and domestic birds. H5N1 genotype B3.13 was first detected in United States dairy cattle in March 2024 and spread through much of the country during 2024 and 2025, resulting in the largest known H5N1 outbreak in domestic mammals. By analysing viral genomic data jointly with historical cattle movement patterns, we find that live cattle movement is the predominant contributor to H5N1 spatial spread, rather than wild or domestic birds. Using phylogeographic methods we estimate that >40% of interstate viral transmissions occurred before B3.13's first detection and >70% occurred before interstate dairy cattle movement restrictions were implemented in April 2024. After this implementation, interstate transmission slowed but within-state spread persisted, driven by local cattle network density and movement volume. Our epidemic simulations demonstrate that the connectivity of counties within and around the Texas Panhandle - where the earliest cases were documented - predisposed the region to become an outbreak epicentre. Counterfactual simulations indicate that interstate restrictions needed to have begun 2-3 months earlier in order to limit the epizootic substantively, given the extent of cryptic spread before detection. Network-informed interventions outperformed geographically-defined containment, but response speed (rather than intervention strength) was the limiting factor in our epidemic models, underscoring the need for surveillance systems capable of detecting pathogen emergence before widespread dissemination.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

The emergence and molecular evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in United States dairy cattle

Prior to 2024, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses circulated predominantly in wild birds and poultry. In 2024 and 2025, 2.3.4.4b genotypes B3.13 and D1.1 were detected in United States dairy cattle. Using whole-genome and segment-specific phylodynamic inference, we estimate that B3.13 and D1.1 spilled over from wild birds into dairy cattle in late 2023 and late 2024, respectively. Spillover occurred shortly after the formation of the reassortant genotypes and was followed by months of cryptic transmission prior to detection. We found that both B3.13 and D1.1 evolved at higher rates in cattle relative to birds, primarily due to relaxed purifying selection. Site-specific analyses identified genomic sites under positive selection in cattle relative to birds, indicating adaptation and likely contributing to improved viral fitness after spillover. Intensified genomic surveillance in dairy cattle is essential as population immunity introduces additional selection pressures, with ever-changing risk for human emergence.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics.

Using a phylogenetic framework to characterize natural selection, we investigate the hypothesis that zoonotic viruses require adaptation prior to zoonosis to sustain human-to-human transmission. Examining the zoonotic emergence of Ebola virus, Marburg virus, influenza A virus, SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2, we find no evidence of a change in the intensity of natural selection immediately prior to a host switch, compared with typical selection within reservoir hosts. We conclude that extensive pre-zoonotic adaptation is not necessary for human-to-human transmission of zoonotic viruses. In contrast, the reemergence of H1N1 influenza A virus in 1977 showed a change in selection, consistent with the hypothesis of passage in a laboratory setting prior to its reintroduction into the human population, purportedly during a vaccine trial. Holistic phylogenetic analysis of selection regimes can be used to detect evolutionary signals of host switching or laboratory passage, providing insight into the circumstances of past and future viral emergence.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Genetic tracing of market wildlife and viruses at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic

Zoonotic spillovers of viruses have occurred through the animal trade worldwide. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was traced epidemiologically to the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, the site with the most reported wildlife vendors in the city of Wuhan, China. Here, we analyze publicly available qPCR and sequencing data from environmental samples collected in the Huanan market in early 2020. We demonstrate that the SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity linked to this market is consistent with market emergence, and find increased SARS-CoV-2 positivity near and within a particular wildlife stall. We identify wildlife DNA in all SARS-CoV-2 positive samples from this stall. This includes species such as civets, bamboo rats, porcupines, hedgehogs, and one species, raccoon dogs, known to be capable of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We also detect other animal viruses that infect raccoon dogs, civets, and bamboo rats. Combining metagenomic and phylogenetic approaches, we recover genotypes of market animals and compare them to those from other markets. This analysis provides the genetic basis for a short list of potential intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 to prioritize for retrospective serological testing and viral sampling.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2023

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 has led to increased sampling of related sarbecoviruses circulating primarily in horseshoe bats. These viruses undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatial structuring across Asia. Employing recombination-aware phylogenetic inference on bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed just [~]1-3 years prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses examining the movement of related sarbecoviruses demonstrate that they traveled at similar rates to their horseshoe bat hosts and have been circulating for thousands of years in Asia. The closest-inferred bat virus ancestor of SARS-CoV likely circulated in western China, and that of SARS-CoV-2 likely circulated in a region comprising southwest China and northern Laos, both a substantial distance from where they emerged. This distance and recency indicate that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 could not have reached their respective sites of emergence via the bat reservoir alone. Our recombination-aware dating and phylogeographic analyses reveal a more accurate inference of evolutionary history than performing only whole-genome or single gene analyses. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic fragments extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Putative APOBEC3 deaminase editing in MPXV as evidence for sustained human transmission since at least 2016.

Mpox is often described as being endemic in West and Central Africa as a zoonotic disease that transmits through contact with the reservoir rodent host, likely a species of African squirrel. In May 2022, human cases of Mpox were detected spreading internationally beyond countries with known endemic reservoirs. At time of writing, 84,700 confirmed cases have been reported in 110 countries. When the first cases from 2022 were sequenced, it was seen that they shared 42 single nucleotide differences from the closest mpox virus (MPXV) genome sampled in 2018. This number of changes within 3-4 years is unexpectedly large and points to a much greater evolutionary rate than expected for a poxvirus. Strikingly, most nucleotide changes are of a specific type - a dinucleotide change from TC->TT or its reverse complement GA->AA. This mutation type is characteristic of the action of APOBEC3 deaminases; host-enzymes with reported antiviral function. Analysis of MPXV genomes sampled from 2017 to 2022 showed further evidence of TC->TT mutation pattern enrichment, with 93% of transmitted single nucleotide mutations since 2017 consistent with APOBEC3 editing. Assuming APOBEC-editing is characteristic of MPXV infection in human hosts, we propose an APOBEC clock that - at a rate of ~6 APOBEC3 mutations per year - estimates MPXV has been circulating in humans since 2016. This evolutionary pattern of host-enzyme editing has implications for the longer-term fitness of the virus in this epidemic as such mechanisms are primarily antiviral in function, but in the context of a poxvirus also provide a source of variation that may conceivably facilitate adaptation.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Isolation and Divergence of Peromyscus melanotis Populations Across the Madrean Sky Islands in Arizona

The Madrean sky islands have been studied for decades due to their high biodiversity, which results from the intersection of biomes and their role as refugia for populations isolated on mountain tops during the last ice age. There has been controversy and confusion about the identification of Peromyscus sp. found in the montane forests on these sky islands, which is often assumed to be the widespread and ubiquitous P. maniculatus. Here, we provide mitochondrial phylogenetic data suggesting that all individuals of Peromyscus captured on three isolated mountains in southern Arizona are Peromyscus melanotis, a species previously thought endemic to Mexico. Furthermore, with molecular clock analyses on two mitochondrial loci we show these populations have been isolated from each other for [~]11,000-50,000 years, corresponding to the transition from the last ice age. These isolated populations represent important conservation targets due to habitat loss. In addition, we suggest that future genomic and ecological research is warranted to better understand these unique populations.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Competent immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 variants in older adults following mRNA vaccination

Aging is associated with a reduced magnitude of primary immune responses to vaccination and constriction of immune receptor repertoire diversity. Clinical trials demonstrated high efficacy of mRNA based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in older adults but concerns about virus variant escape have not been well addressed. We have conducted an in-depth analysis of humoral and cellular immunity against an early-pandemic viral isolate and compared that to the P.1. (Gamma) and B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants in <50 and >55 age cohorts of mRNA vaccine recipients. We have further measured neutralizing antibody titers for B.1.617.1 (Kappa) and B.1.595; a SARS-CoV-2 isolate bearing Spike mutation E484Q. As reported, robust immunity required the second dose of vaccine. Older vaccinees manifested robust cellular immunity against early-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 and more recent variants, which remained statistically comparable to the adult group. The older cohort had lower neutralizing capacity at the first time point following the second dose, but at later time points immunity was indistinguishable between them. While the duration of these immune responses remains to be determined over longer periods of time, these results provide reasons for optimism regarding vaccine protection of older adults against SARS-CoV-2 variants and inform thinking about boost vaccination with variant vaccines. eTOC summaryVaccine responses are often diminished with aging, but we found strong responses to SARS-CoV-2 in older adults following mRNA vaccination. T cell responses were not diminished when confronted by SARS-CoV-2 variants. Neutralizing Ab were reduced but not more than those in adults. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=73 SRC="FIGDIR/small/453287v2_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (16K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1091655org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1996173org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@ccf2f9org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@163ed22_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Created with BioRender.com

immunology↗

bioRxiv2021

Evolution and diversity of bat and rodent Paramyxoviruses from North America

Paramyxoviruses are a diverse group of negative-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of which several species cause significant mortality and morbidity. In recent years the collection of paramyxoviruses sequences detected in wild mammals has substantially grown, however little is known about paramyxovirus diversity in North American mammals. To better understand natural paramyxovirus diversity, host range, and host specificity, we sought to comprehensively characterize paramyxoviruses across a range of diverse co-occurring wild small mammals in Southern Arizona. We used highly degenerate primers to screen fecal and urine samples and obtained a total of 55 paramyxovirus sequences from 12 rodent species and 6 bat species. We also performed illumina RNA-seq and de novo assembly on 14 of the positive samples to recover a total of 5 near full-length viral genomes. We show there are at least 2 clades of rodent-borne paramyxoviruses in Arizona, while bat-associated paramyxoviruses formed a putative single clade. Using structural homology modeling of the viral attachment protein, we infer that three of the five novel viruses likely bind sialic acid in a manner similar to other Respiroviruses, while the other two viruses from Heteromyid rodents likely bind a novel host receptor. We find no evidence for cross-species transmission, even among closely related sympatric host species. Taken together, these data suggest paramyxoviruses are a common viral infection in some bat and rodent species present in North America, and illuminate the evolution of these viruses. ImportanceThere are a number of viral lineages that are potential zoonotic threats to humans. One of these, paramyxoviruses, have jumped into humans multiple times from wild and domestic animals. We conducted one of the largest viral surveys of wild mammals in the United States to better understand paramyxovirus diversity and evolution.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Archival influenza virus genomes from Europe reveal genomic and phenotypic variability during the 1918 pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the deadliest respiratory pandemic of the 20th century and determined the genomic make-up of subsequent human influenza A viruses (IAV). Here, we analyze the first 1918 IAV genomes from Europe and from the first, milder wave of the pandemic. 1918 IAV genomic diversity is consistent with local transmission and frequent long-distance dispersal events and in vitro polymerase characterization suggests potential phenotypic variability. Comparison of first and second wave genomes shows variation at two sites in the nucleoprotein gene associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible adaptation of 1918 IAV to humans. Finally, phylogenetic estimates based on extended molecular clock modelling suggests a pure pandemic descent of seasonal H1N1 IAV as an alternative to the hypothesis of an intrasubtype reassortment origin. One Sentence SummaryMuch can be learned about past pandemics by uncovering their footprints in medical archives, which we here demonstrate for the 1918 flu pandemic.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Co-evolutionary analysis suggests a role for TLR9 in papillomavirus restriction

A.Upon infection, DNA viruses can be sensed by pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) leading to the activation of type I and III interferons, aimed at blocking infection. Therefore, viruses must inhibit these signaling pathways, avoid being detected, or both. Papillomavirus virions are trafficked from early endosomes to the Golgi apparatus and wait for the onset of mitosis to complete nuclear entry. This unique subcellular trafficking strategy avoids detection by cytoplasmic PRRs, a property that may contribute to establishment of infection. However, as the capsid uncoats within acidic endosomal compartments, the viral DNA may be exposed to detection by toll-like receptor (TLR) 9. In this study we characterize two new papillomaviruses from bats and use molecular archeology to demonstrate that their genomes altered their nucleotide composition to avoid detection by TLR9, providing evidence that TLR9 acts as a PRR during papillomavirus infection. Furthermore, we demonstrate that TLR9, like other components of the innate immune system, is under evolutionary selection in bats, providing the first direct evidence for co-evolution between papillomaviruses and their hosts.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2020

Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province

Understanding when SARS-CoV-2 emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We employed a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated prior to the time of the most recent common ancestor. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Accommodating individual travel history, global mobility, and unsampled diversity in phylogeography: a SARS-CoV-2 case study.

Spatiotemporal bias in genome sequence sampling can severely confound phylogeographic inference based on discrete trait ancestral reconstruction. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the availability of unprecedented numbers of SARS-CoV-2 genomes on a global scale, evolutionary reconstructions are hindered by the slow accumulation of sequence divergence over its relatively short transmission history. When confronted with these issues, incorporating additional contextual data may critically inform phylodynamic reconstructions. Here, we present a new approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2, while also including global air transportation data. We demonstrate that including travel history data for each SARS-CoV-2 genome yields more realistic reconstructions of virus spread, particularly when travelers from undersampled locations are included to mitigate sampling bias. We further explore methods to ameliorate the impact of sampling bias by augmenting the phylogeographic analysis with lineages from undersampled locations in the analyses. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts. Although further research is needed to fully examine the performance of our travel-aware phylogeographic analyses with unsampled diversity and to further improve them, they represent multiple new avenues for directly addressing the colossal issue of sample bias in phylogeographic inference.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critically important for public health response and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here, we elucidate when, where and how the earliest sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and the United States (US). Our results refute prior findings erroneously linking cases in January 2020 with outbreaks that occurred weeks later. Instead, rapid interventions successfully prevented onward transmission of those early cases in Germany and Washington State. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and US transmission networks. Our analyses reveal an extended period of missed opportunity when intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established in the US and Europe.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

A near-full-length HIV-1 genome from 1966 recovered from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue

Although estimated to have emerged in humans in Central Africa in the early 1900s, HIV-1, the main causative agent of AIDS, was only discovered in 1983. With very little direct biological data of HIV-1 from before the 1980s, far-reaching evolutionary and epidemiological inferences regarding the long pre-discovery phase of this pandemic are based on extrapolations by phylodynamic models of HIV-1 genomic sequences gathered mostly over recent decades. Here, using a very sensitive multiplex RT-PCR assay, we screened 1,652 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue specimens collected for pathology diagnostics in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), between 1959 and 1967. We report the near-complete genome of one positive from 1966 (\"DRC66\")--a non-recombinant sister lineage to subtype C that constitutes the oldest HIV-1 near-full-length genome recovered to date. Root-to-tip plots showed the DRC66 sequence is not an outlier as would be expected if dating estimates from more recent genomes were systematically biased; and inclusion of DRC66 sequence in tip-dated BEAST analyses did not significantly alter root and internal node age estimates based on post-1978 HIV-1 sequences. There was larger variation in divergence time estimates among datasets that were subsamples of the available HIV-1 genomes from 1978-2015, showing the inherent phylogenetic stochasticity across subsets of the real HIV-1 diversity. In conclusion, this unique archival HIV-1 sequence provides direct genomic insight into HIV-1 in 1960s DRC, and, as an ancient-DNA calibrator, it validates our understanding of HIV-1 evolutionary history.\n\nSignificanceInferring the precise timing of the origin of the HIV/AIDS pandemic is of great importance because it offers insights into which factors did--or did not--facilitate the emergence of the causal virus. Previous estimates have implicated rapid development during the early 20th century in Central Africa, which wove once-isolated populations into a more continuous fabric. We recovered the first HIV-1 genome from the 1960s, and it provides direct evidence that HIV-1 molecular clock estimates spanning the last half-century are remarkably reliable. And, because this genome itself was sampled only about a half-century after the estimated origin of the pandemic, it empirically anchors this crucial inference with high confidence.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Do maternal antibodies facilitate hemagglutinin imprinting to influenza A viruses encountered early in childhood?

In a recent study, we showed evidence for childhood HA imprinting, a phenomenon in which children develop preferential, lifelong immune memory against zoonotic influenza viruses with hemagglutinin (HA) antigens in the same phylogenetic group as the first influenza virus encountered in childhood (Gostic et al. 2016). Although our original study showed strong, population-level HA imprinting effects, it did not resolve the underlying immunological mechanisms.\n\nSimilar immune imprinting phenomena, where individuals preferentially recall immune responses primed early in life, also influence seasonal influenza epidemiology via antigenic seniority (Lessler et al. 2012) and original antigenic sin (Francis 1960), yet the mechanisms underlying all these childhood immune imprinting phenomena remain poorly understood (Cobey & Hensley 2017). A recent letter from Dr. H. Lemke (Lemke 2017) suggested that these childhood imprinting effects might be mediated by the combined action of maternal antibodies (mAbs) and influenza antigen. In other words, that imprinting may require that children are exposed to influenza A virus in the first year of life, while maternal antibodies are still present.

immunology↗