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Wilkinson, E.

Publications and source records attributed to Wilkinson, E..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Boosting Felsenstein Phylogenetic Bootstrap

Felsensteins article describing the application of the bootstrap to evolutionary trees, is one of the most cited papers of all time. That statistical method, based on resampling and replications, is used extensively to assess the robustness of phylogenetic inferences. However, increasing numbers of sequences are now available for a wide variety of species, and phylogenies with hundreds or thousands of taxa are becoming routine. In that framework, Felsensteins bootstrap tends to yield very low supports, especially on deep branches. We propose a revised version, in which the presence of inferred branches in replications is measured using a gradual \"transfer\" distance, as opposed to the original version using a binary presence/absence index. The resulting supports are higher, while not inducing falsely supported branches. Our method is applied to large simulation, mammal and HIV datasets, for which it reveals the phylogenetic signal, while Felsensteins bootstrap fails to do so.

evolutionary biology

External introductions helped drive and sustain the high incidence of HIV-1 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Despite increasing access to antiretroviral therapy, HIV incidence in rural KwaZulu-Natal communities remains among the highest ever reported in Africa. While many epidemiological factors have been invoked to explain this high incidence, widespread human mobility and movement of viral lineages between geographic locations have implicated high rates of transmission across communities. High rates of crosscommunity transmission call into question how effective increasing local coverage of antiretroviral therapy will be at preventing new infections, especially if many new cases arise from external introductions. To help address this question, we use a new phylodynamic modeling approach to estimate both changes in epidemic dynamics through time and the relative contribution of local transmission versus external introductions to overall incidence from HIV-1 subtype C phylogenies. Our phylodynamic estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence are remarkably consistent with population-based surveillance data. Our analysis also reveals that early epidemic dynamics in this population were largely driven by a wave of external introductions. More recently, we estimate that anywhere between 20-60% of all new infections arise from external introductions from outside the local community. These results highlight the power of using phylodynamic methods to study generalized HIV epidemics and the growing need to consider larger-scale regional transmission dynamics above the level of local communities when designing and testing prevention strategies.

epidemiology