From field naturalism to Bayesian models: fog-frost interaction shapes growth form partitioning along Himalayan gradient
AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWMountain gradients facilitate our understanding of species range limits, competition dynamics, stress-resilience trade-offs, and determinants of vegetation zone boundaries. Forest compositional models often use altitude as the main predictor, a proxy for temperature that is defensible where floristic transitions are gradual and climate relationships are linear. However, mountains with distinct assemblages, representing tropical gradients or areas with complex biogeographic history, require a modeling framework that reflects non-linear dynamics or interactions between environmental factors, including outlier events (rather than mean conditions). Our study system encompasses both tropical and temperate forests along a broad ([~]3000 m) altitudinal gradient, positioned within a narrow latitudinal band (< 1{degrees}) and composed of mature, continuous forest in the Bhutan Himalaya. To represent the breadth of climatic conditions experienced over a trees lifetime, we used a Bayesian modeling paradigm and integrated multi-generational field knowledge to develop a priori hypotheses and informed priors, with consideration of monsoon seasonality and possible ecophysiological thresholds. Our approach followed three stages (the Pattern, the Mechanism, the Test). Specifically, we interpolated microclimate data and derived custom metrics based on thermodynamics, propagating uncertainty into subsequent models to test whether climate posteriors outperformed altitude in explaining growth form partitioning. For spatial patterns, we identified six distinct vegetation zones (encompassing 145 species from 57 families), with a mid-gradient peak in richness at the tropical-temperate transition zone, and convergence of deciduousness at either end of the gradient. For individual growth forms, abundance was tied to different ecological mechanisms, explained by adaptations to climatic stressors and competition trade-offs. For instance, evergreen broad-leaved dominance was linked to ephemeral cloud immersion, whereas tropical deciduous species were affiliated with higher vapor pressure deficit at lower altitudes. Most importantly, compositional (between-group) models showed that the interaction between frost events and fog probability (air saturation prior to the dry season) governed growth form partitioning more than any single factor; temperate deciduous species, confined to a narrow altitudinal band, exemplified this finding. Our methodological approach is transferable to other data-sparse mountain systems, and our results highlight the vulnerability of unique habitat types and montane endemics under climate change scenarios that alter the fog-frost dynamics. Second abstract in DzongkhaTo see the second abstract in Dzongkha, the official language of Bhutan, please visit our Zenodo site: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19081441.