Biology subjects

White, J. W.

Publications and source records attributed to White, J. W..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Phenological plasticity provides limited resilience to climate warming in a sea turtle species with temperature-dependent sex determination

Anthropogenic climate change is threatening global biodiversity, with sea turtles particularly vulnerable as offspring sex and developmental success are strongly influenced by incubation temperature. Behavioral plasticity, including the seasonal distribution of reproductive output, may provide short-term mechanisms for mitigating these impacts. Here, we investigated season-wide hatchling sex ratios and emergence success in a small population of green turtles (Chelonia mydas), tracking individual females across their nesting seasons. Sex ratios varied markedly through the nesting season, with later nests producing a greater proportion of male hatchlings. Moreover, sex ratios were relatively consistent among nests laid by individual females. Overall, females producing more nests over a season also produced more male offspring, suggesting that both nesting phenology and reproductive output influence individual contributions to future population demographics. Mechanistic models indicate that hatchling sex ratios have trended towards female-biased ratios (>80% female) over the past 50 years, and are projected to approach complete feminization by 2100 under continued warming. Although emergence success currently remains high (>85%), it is predicted to decline sharply after mid-century, with viable hatchling production falling to [~]30% by the end of the century. Models further show that maintaining contemporary sex ratios and emergence success will require unrealistically large delays in nesting phenology, and that even extreme shifts in phenology become ineffective by 2100. Together, these findings demonstrate that individual females can increase male hatchling production by nesting later and producing more nests, but behavioral plasticity alone is unlikely to offset the accelerating impacts of climate change on this population.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Tradeoffs in planning marine protected areas for kelp forest resilience: protecting climate refugia is not always the best solution

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly promoted as climate mitigation tools, yet guidance on their placement to maximize resilience against climate stressors like marine heatwaves remains limited. Here, we develop MPA placement guidelines that explicitly consider a mechanistic pathway through which MPAs could enhance kelp forest resilience to heatwaves: protecting fishery-targeted urchin predators to prevent kelp overgrazing. Using a spatially explicit, tri-trophic model of California kelp forests, we evaluate alternative MPA configurations across a hypothetical coastline where half the habitat experiences an increased probability of experiencing heatwaves. We found that effective MPA placement depends on whether MPAs are being newly established or reconfigured within an existing network, and that among-patch connectivity and spillover played vital roles in the relative effectiveness of different MPA configurations. Changes in resilience occurred primarily at the patch scale, with trade-offs between increased within-MPA resilience and decreased resilience in some fished areas, resulting in minimal coastwide population effects. For example, for new MPAs, large single MPAs within heatwave-prone areas maximized within-MPA resilience gains, while multiple small MPAs in heatwave refugia best supported whole-coast resilience. When reconfiguring established networks, expanding existing MPAs in refugia areas was most effective. We also demonstrate the importance of considering MPA recovery timescales: for example, relocating old MPAs to heatwave refugia yielded minimal short-term benefits due to the loss of rebuilt, previously fished, predator biomass. Our findings demonstrate that climate-adaptive marine planning should explicitly consider the spatiotemporal implications of trophic cascades, connectivity, and transient population dynamics to support ecosystem resilience.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Short-term management of kelp forests for marine heatwaves requires pre-emptive action

Heatwaves are now pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems, and it is urgent to consider mitigation tools that support ecosystem resilience and persistence in the immediate future. We modeled a system of kelp, herbivorous urchin, and predatory fish to compare how potential management actions (kelp seeding, urchin removal, and fishery closures) could reduce the likelihood of a heatwave shifting a kelp forest into a degraded urchin barren state. We found that those interventions were most effective when begun alongside or before the start of a heatwave. Closing the predatory fish fishery was more effective when done earlier and for longer, while urchin removal and kelp seeding were more effective when begun alongside and continued throughout the heatwave. Kelp seeding was notably less effective than other interventions. Our results suggest the need for improved heatwave forecasting and nimble management protocols to enact mitigation actions quickly if a heatwave is forecasted or occurs.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Genetic Associations in Four Decades of Multi-Environment Trials Reveal Agronomic Trait Evolution in Common Bean

Multi-environment trials (METs) are widely used to assess the performance of promising crop germplasm. Though seldom designed to elucidate genetic mechanisms, MET datasets are often much larger than could be duplicated for genetic research and, given proper interpretation, may offer valuable insights into the genetics of adaptation across time and space. The Cooperative Dry Bean Nursery (CDBN) is a MET for common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) grown for over 70 years in the United States and Canada, consisting of 20 to 50 entries each year at 10 to 20 locations. The CBDN provides a rich source of phenotypic data across entries, years, and locations that is amenable to genetic analysis. To study stable genetic effects segregating in this MET, we conducted genome-wide association (GWAS) using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) derived across years and locations for 21 CDBN phenotypes and genotypic data (1.2M SNPs) for 327 CDBN genotypes. The value of this approach was confirmed by the discovery of three candidate genes and genomic regions previously identified in balanced GWAS. Multivariate adaptive shrinkage (mash) analysis, which increased our power to detect significant correlated effects, found significant effects for all phenotypes. The first use of mash on an agricultural dataset discovered two genomic regions with pleiotropic effects on multiple phenotypes, likely selected on in pursuit of a crop ideotype. Overall, our results demonstrate that by applying multiple statistical genomic approaches on data mined from MET phenotypic data sets, significant genetic effects that define genomic regions associated with crop improvement can be discovered.

genomics↗